In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team ahead of the release of this week’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly petroleum status report, Macquarie strategists projected that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 5.4 million barrels for the week ending February 13.
“This follows an 8.5 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing looser relative to our expectations,” the strategists, including Walt Chancellor, stated in the report.
“For the week ending 2/13, from refineries, we look for a reduction in crude runs (-0.3 million barrels per day), with turnaround timing again adding noise to the picture,” they added.
“Among net imports, we model a sharp reduction, with exports up (+0.6 million barrels per day) and imports down (-0.4 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.
The strategists noted in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a nominal increase (+0.3 million barrels per day),” they added.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate SPR [U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks up slightly (+0.2 million barrels) for the week ending 2/13,” they continued.
The Macquarie strategists went on to state in the report that, “among products”, they “look for a slight draw in gasoline (-0.2 million barrels), with distillate (+0.8 million barrels) and jet stocks (+1.0 million barrels) higher”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~13.9 million barrels per day for the week ending February 13,” they said.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on February 19. It will include data for the week ending February 13.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on February 11 and included data for the week ending February 6, the EIA highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 8.5 million barrels from the week ending January 30 to the week ending February 6.
According to that EIA report, crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 428.8 million barrels on February 6, 420.3 million barrels on January 30, and 427.9 million barrels on February 7, 2025. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 415.2 million barrels on February 6, 415.2 million barrels on January 30, and 395.3 million barrels on February 7, 2025, the EIA report revealed.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.689 billion barrels on February 6, the EIA report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 1.7 million barrels week on week and up 81.9 million barrels year on year, the report revealed.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone on February 12, SEB Commodities Analyst Ole R. Hvalbye outlined that “a sizeable build in U.S. commercial crude inventories added … downside pressure” to Brent.
Macquarie strategists, including Chancellor, revealed in an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on February 10 that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 6.5 million barrels for the week ending February 6.
“This follows a 3.5 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance again realizing tighter relative to our expectations, albeit amidst significant winter freeze noise,” the strategists noted in that report.
“For this week’s stats, we again see significant room for volatility as freeze impacts work their way through the data,” they warned.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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