An early backer of the prediction market says he’s growing uneasy about its trajectory.
Vitalik Buterin, the cofounder of Ethereum and an early investor of prediction market platform Polymarket, warned in a post on X on Tuesday that prediction markets risk devolving into what he called “corposlop,” referring to platforms optimized for addictive, low-value gambling.
Buterin said that he is worried about an overreliance on sports betting, short-term crypto price wagers, and other high-dopamine products that drive volume but have little larger social or financial benefit, creating an “over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit.”
“My guess is that teams feel motivated to capitulate to these things because they bring in large revenue during a bear market where people are desperate – an understandable motive, but one that leads to corposlop,” he wrote.
He said that there is “nothing fundamentally morally wrong with taking money from people with dumb opinions,” but an overreliance on that strategy is “cursed.”
He added, “It gives the platform the incentive to seek out traders with dumb opinions, and create a public brand and community that encourages dumb opinions to get more people to come in.”
As recently as December 2025, Buterin described participation in prediction markets as “healthier” than traditional financial markets and pushed back against critics who likened them to gambling. At the time, he said that prediction markets are more truth-seeking and transparent than legacy finance.
Buterin’s critique lands at a moment when prediction markets are enjoying a surge in popularity and capital. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have climbed to multi-billion-dollar valuations, buoyed by demand for election markets, sports contracts, and crypto-linked wagers. Users can bet on everything from the weather to the date of Taylor Swift’s engagement. Institutional players, including Jump Trading and Coinbase, have also moved deeper into the space, signaling growing mainstream acceptance.
Buterin on Tuesday said that, in his view, prediction markets should operate more like sportsbooks and pursue more ambitious use cases, such as personalized insurance systems.
“Now, we do not need fiat currency at all!” Buterin wote. “People can hold stocks, ETH, or whatever else to grow wealth, and personalized prediction market shares when they want stability.”
Polymarket and Kalshi did not immediately respond to requests for comments.
