HSBC Thinks BP Could Accentuate Shift Back to Oil Under New CEO

In a research note sent to Rigzone by the HSBC team this week, HSBC analysts, including Kim Fustier, HSBC’s Senior Global Oil and Gas Analyst, said they think BP “could accentuate its shift back to oil and gas and away from low carbon energy” under its new CEO.

“BP’s 4Q25 results in February will take place during yet another period of transition for the company,” the analysts said in the note.

“Incoming CEO Meg O’Neill will assume the role on April 1, following the unexpected departure of Murray Auchincloss in late December and interim leadership of Carol Howle,” they added.

“We do not expect major strategic announcements at BP’s 4Q results yet, almost a year since its ‘fundamental reset’. Under its new CEO, we think BP could accentuate its shift back to oil and gas and away from low carbon energy,” they continued.

The HSBC analysts stated in the research note that they would also expect a greater emphasis on cost savings and capital efficiency.

“On our estimates, there is no immediate financial pressure on BP’s $3 billion annual buyback in a $60-65 per barrel Brent environment as it is dwarfed by the scale of yet to be announced disposals of c$9 billion,” the analysts noted.

“That said, BP could choose to cut buybacks out of prudence as deleveraging remains a priority, or if it sees the current interim period as an opportune time to reset shareholder distributions,” they added.

Rigzone has contacted BP for comment on HSBC’s research note. At the time of writing, BP has not responded to Rigzone.

In a statement posted on its website on December 17, BP announced that its board had appointed O’Neill as BP’s next CEO, effective April 1, noting that Murray Auchincloss had decided to step down from his position as CEO and director of the board, effective December 18.

“Carol Howle, current Executive Vice President, Supply, Trading & Shipping of BP, will serve as interim CEO until Meg joins as CEO. Murray will serve in an advisory role until December 2026 to ensure a smooth transition,” BP said in the statement.

BP noted in its statement that the appointment of O’Neill followed a search process overseen by a search committee of the board, assisted by an independent recruitment firm, as part of the board’s long-term succession planning. 

BP highlighted in the statement that O’Neill currently serves as CEO of Woodside Energy and stated that, since her appointment as CEO in 2021, O’Neill has grown Woodside Energy into the largest energy company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange.

“Among her many accomplishments at Woodside Energy, she oversaw the transformative acquisition of BHP Petroleum International, creating a geographically diverse business with a portfolio of high-quality oil and gas assets,” BP noted.

“Before joining Woodside Energy in 2018, Meg spent 23 years at ExxonMobil in technical, operational and leadership positions around the world,” BP highlighted.

In the BP statement, the company’s chair, Albert Manifold, said, “we are delighted to welcome Meg O’Neill to the BP team”.

“Her proven track record of driving transformation, growth, and disciplined capital allocation makes her the right leader for BP,” he added.

O’Neill said in the statement, “BP plays a critical role in delivering energy to customers around the world”.

“I am honored to serve as the company’s next CEO. With an extraordinary portfolio of assets, BP has significant potential to reestablish market leadership and grow shareholder value,” O’Neill added.

“I look forward to working with the bp leadership team and colleagues worldwide to accelerate performance, advance safety, drive innovation and sustainability and do our part to meet the world’s energy needs,” O’Neill continued.

Auchincloss said in the statement, “after more than three decades with BP, now is the right time to hand the reins to a new leader”.

“When Albert became Chair, I expressed my openness to step down were an appropriate leader identified who could accelerate delivery of BP’s strategy,” he said.

“I am confident that BP is now well positioned for significant growth and I look forward to watching the company’s future progress and success under Meg’s leadership,” he went on to state.

In a statement posted on its website in February last year, BP announced a “fundamentally reset strategy”. This strategy will see BP grow its upstream oil and gas business, focus its downstream business, and invest with increasing discipline into the transition, the company noted in that statement.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com