Oil markets are trapped in a Trump-driven guessing game, with Iran fears lifting prices one moment and calming signals pulling them back the next.
Friday, January 16, 2026
Will Donald Trump attack Iran again or not? That has been the multi-billion-dollar question of this week, with the initial price rally seeming to suggest an emphatic ‘yes’, only for Trump to pour cold water on the war hysteria by claiming there’s no executions in Iran. With news on Venezuela lacking real market impact lately, ICE Brent’s seesawing around the $65 per barrel could very well continue into next week, as market participants guess the US President’s next move.
OPEC Sees 2027 Through Rose-Tinted Glasses. Publishing its usual monthly report this week, OPEC presented its 2027 demand growth outlook for the first time ever, anticipating a 1.34 million b/d hike in global oil demand buoyed by ‘strong economic activity’ and a slower-than-expected spread of biofuels.
Trump Gets Warrants for More Tanker Seizures. Shortly after the US government filed for new court warrants to confiscate dozens more tankers linked to Venezuela’s oil trade, the US military and Coast Guard have jointly seized an empty tanker that departed from Venezuelan waters in early January.
OPEC Mulls Keeping Venezuela’s Membership. US President Trump said it would be better for Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC, to remain in the oil group, raising speculation that the White House might use Caracas’ membership to gain information about OPEC’s next big moves.
Low Prices Ratchet Up Chinese Buying. China’s General Administration of Customs reported that December crude oil imports jumped 17% year-on-year to 55.97 million tonnes or 13.18 million b/d, a new all-time high reading as higher Russian inflows compensated for lower Iranian imports.
US Shale Consolidation Still Not Over. According to Reuters, US shale specialists Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) and Coterra Energy (NYSE:CTRA) are considering a potential merger that would create one of the largest independent producers with a market value of $44 billion and output of 1.6 million boe/d.
UK Doubles Down on Offshore Wind Projects. The United Kingdom has contracted a record amount of offshore wind capacity in its latest electricity auction this week, securing 8.4 GW of new projects that would be enough to power around 12 million homes at a relatively high strike price of £90.91 per MWh.
Indonesia Gives Up on Quick Implementation of B50. The government of Indonesia has scrapped plans for a mandatory B50 biodiesel mandate (a biofuel produced from palm oil), claiming that the recently completed expansion of the Balikpapan refinery would be sufficient to cover the country’s needs.
California Gets Dragged to Court over Oil. The US Department of Justice has filed a lawsuit against California Governor Gavin Newsom, arguing that his 2022 ban on drilling for oil in a 3,200 feet radius from community spaces is pre-empted by federal laws governing nationwide oil and gas development.
Droned Tankers Scare Off European Buyers. Several European refiners have stopped purchasing Kazakhstan’s light sour CPC Blend following this week’s triple attack on tankers waiting for loading next to Russia’s Black Sea Coast, sending the grade’s differentials to a discount vs Dated Brent.
Europe Gets Confused by Its Own Rules. Having started off 2026 in a robust manner with 10,483 CBAM-compliant import declarations, commodity trading in Europe was paralyzed this week after the European Commission suggested that fertilizers be exempted from the carbon border mechanism.
Ghana Wants to Rewrite Its Gold Rules. Tempted by soaring gold prices as the bullion finished the week closer to $4,600 per ounce, Africa’s largest gold producer, Ghana, is reportedly considering cancelling investment stability agreements and doubling royalties to capture more benefits from higher prices.
Beijing’s Tax Tinkering Lifts Lithium Prices. Lithium carbonate prices soared by more than 10% this week, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange benchmark hitting ¥156,000 per tonne ($22,400/mt) after the Finance Ministry said it would roll back VAT export rebates for battery products by early 2027.
Turkish Straits Held Up as Tanker Stops Dead. Navigation through the Dardanelles Strait was halted after a Mozambique-flagged ship (Boston Beacon, returning from India) experienced engine failure during a northward transit, aggravating delays as transit times were already as long as seven days.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
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