OPEC 8 Reaffirm Decision to Pause Production Hikes

A statement posted on OPEC’s website on January 4 revealed that, in a meeting held on Sunday, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “reaffirmed their decision on 2 November 2025 to pause production increments in February and March 2026 due to seasonality”. 

According to a table accompanying the statement, “required production” in February and March this year is 10.103 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.574 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.273 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.411 million barrels per day for the UAE, 2.580 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.569 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 971,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 811,000 barrels per day for Oman.

The statement highlighted that the eight OPEC+ countries, “which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023”, met virtually on January 4 “to review global market conditions and outlook”. It said the eight participating countries “reiterated that the 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner”.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to continue pausing or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments, including the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023,” the statement said.

“The eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee,” it added.

“They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024,” it continued.

The statement went on to note that the eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings “to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation”, adding that the eight countries will meet on February 1.

In a statement sent to Rigzone on Monday morning, Naeem Assam, Chief Analyst at Zaye Capital Markets, said, “oil remains range bound … underscoring that macroeconomic weakness is outweighing geopolitical risk”.

“With OPEC holding production steady and the International Energy Agency [IEA] maintaining soft demand projections for Q1 2026, the market remains focused on oversupply and weak demand,” he added.

“Today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI may drive short term volatility, but sustained upside is unlikely without an OPEC policy shift or clear inventory drawdowns,” he continued.

In a market analysis sent to Rigzone today, Frank Walbaum, Market Analyst at Naga, said “crude oil entered the first full trading week of 2026 with more volatility”.

“Geopolitical risks in Latin America and elsewhere create upside pressure over the short term. However, the market could remain under pressure over the long term as a projected global supply surplus could outweigh the recent geopolitical developments in Latin America,” he added.

Walbaum highlighted in the statement that OPEC+ “reaffirmed its decision to keep production levels steady through March, extending a pause on planned output increases”.

“Overall, the market could continue to see a downside tilt with the IEA expecting global supply to rise by about 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026 and demand by only about 860,000 barrels per day, implying a large surplus,” he went on to state.

A statement posted on OPEC’s website on November 30 revealed that, in a meeting held that day, the eight OPEC+ countries “reaffirmed their decision on November 2, 2025, to pause production increments in January, February, and March 2026 due to seasonality”. 

A separate statement posted on OPEC’s website on November 30 highlighted that the 40th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting took place that day. That statement outlined that the participating countries decided to “reaffirm the Framework of the Declaration of Cooperation, signed on 10 December 2016 and further endorsed in subsequent meetings” and “reiterate the critical importance of adhering to full conformity and the compensation mechanism”. 

They also decided to “reaffirm the level of overall crude oil production for OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries in the DoC as agreed in the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting until 31 December 2026” and “reaffirm the mandate of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) to closely review global oil market conditions, oil production levels, and the level of conformity with the DoC, assisted by the OPEC Secretariat,” the statement outlined.

“In reference to the decision of the 39th ONOMM; mandating the OPEC Secretariat to develop a mechanism to assess participating countries’ maximum sustainable production capacity (MSC) to be used as reference for the 2027 production baselines for all DoC countries, the Participating Countries approved the mechanism developed by the Secretariat,” the statement went on to note.

This OPEC statement also revealed that the countries decided to “reaffirm the framework of the Charter of Cooperation (CoC), signed on 2 July 2019, and request the OPEC Secretariat to develop a plan and convert it into programs to achieve the full objectives of the CoC, as it was originally mandated, and present it to the 41st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting”. 

The 41st OPEC and Non-OPEC ministerial meeting is scheduled to take place on June 7, 2026, according to the statement.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com