Major parcel carriers are holding up well during the early holiday rush, even as shipping volumes jump sharply.
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New data from ShipMatrix shows FedEx, UPS, and the U.S. Postal Service delivered the vast majority of packages on time during the first week of December, a key stretch for holiday shopping. The analysis looked at millions of parcels shipped between Dec. 1 and Dec. 6, when online orders typically ramp up as shoppers aim to get gifts delivered before Christmas.
Using ShipMatrix’s holiday methodology, which allows end-of-day delivery for express and deferred shipments and gives ground deliveries an extra day, UPS posted an on-time rate of 98.9%. FedEx followed at 98.3%, while the Postal Service came in at 97.2%.
Those results closely match last year’s performance during the same week. In early December 2024, UPS also delivered 98.9% of packages on time, while FedEx and the Postal Service recorded on-time rates of 98.7% and 97.4%, respectively.
The performance stands out given the scale of deliveries moving through networks. ShipMatrix said the three national carriers, along with Amazon, Walmart, private delivery fleets, and smaller regional and last-mile providers, handled more than 568 million parcels during the period, a roughly 30% increase in volume compared to off-peak levels.
ShipMatrix excludes delays caused by severe weather, shipper or consignee issues, and road closures from its on-time calculations. Still, the firm cautioned that shoppers and retailers shouldn’t wait too long. Orders placed after Dec. 17 are likely to require premium shipping services, and even then, delivery before Christmas is not guaranteed, particularly if weather disrupts air and ground transportation.
Peak season costs and timing pressures are building
Strong early delivery performance comes as carriers roll out higher peak-season fees and tighter shipping cutoffs as Christmas approaches.
Amazon ecently announced higher peak-season fees for the 2025 holidays, a sign that even as networks hold up well, moving packages in December is getting more expensive for retailers and shippers.
Timing is also becoming a bigger factor. USPS, UPS, and FedEx have already published their 2025 holiday shipping deadlines, showing how quickly the window is closing for standard delivery options.
Taken together, the higher fees and earlier deadlines show why carriers are urging shippers to plan, even as ShipMatrix data shows delivery networks are holding up well so far.
Visit Logistics Management for more coverage of ShipMatrix’s latest holiday shipping data.
