In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 4.9 million barrels for the week ending November 21.
“This follows a 3.4 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing relatively close to our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s balance, from refineries, we model a small increase in crude runs (+0.1 million barrels per day),” they added.
“Among net imports, we model a large increase, with exports lower (-0.6 million barrels per day) and imports higher (+0.3 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.
The Macquarie strategists warned in the report that the timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for an increase (+0.3 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” the strategists went on to note.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a similar increase (+0.5 million barrels) in SPR [U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists also noted in the report that, “among products”, they “look for a draw in gasoline (-0.6 million barrels), with builds in distillate (+3.3 million barrels) and jet (+0.7 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~13.8 million barrels per day for the week ending November 21,” the Macquarie strategists went on to state in the report.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on November 19 and included data for the week ending November 14, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 3.4 million barrels from the week ending November 7 to the week ending November 14.
That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 424.2 million barrels on November 14, 427.6 million barrels on November 7, and 430.3 million barrels on November 15, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 410.9 million barrels on November 14, 410.4 million barrels on November 7, and 389.2 million barrels on November 15, 2024, this EIA report highlighted.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.680 billion barrels on November 14, the EIA report revealed. Total petroleum stocks were down 2.2 million barrels week on week and up 47.1 million barrels year on year, the report showed.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on November 20, SEB Commodities Analyst Ole R. Hvalbye said, “overall, the report shows a tighter crude balance due to higher refinery activity, but softer product demand and rising gasoline/diesel inventories”.
Eric Chia, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness, noted in a market comment sent to Rigzone on November 21 that “U.S. crude inventory data was mixed”.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on November 17 by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 3.0 million barrels for the week ending November 14.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on November 26. It will include data for the week ending November 21.
On its website, the EIA describes itself as the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy.
“EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment,” the EIA states in its site.
“EIA is the nation’s premier source of energy information, and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government,” it adds.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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