At 12:40 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $58.60, down $0.24 or -0.41%.
Oversupply Concerns Keep Oil Prices Forecast Tilted Lower
The bigger theme in crude oil news today is oversupply. Traders are still watching Ukraine-related headlines, but the market isn’t trading like Russian flows are about to disappear. Russia is already looking to push more barrels into China as sanctions limit options. India — especially private refiners like Reliance — has dialed back purchases of Russian crude to avoid running afoul of sanctions tied to Rosneft and Lukoil.
Analysts aren’t sugarcoating the issue: the supply/demand balance for 2026 looks loose. Deutsche Bank pegs next year’s surplus at 2 million barrels per day or more, with no easy path back to deficit. It’s early, but those oil prices projections lean bearish — and traders are trading that way.
Market Wants to Rally — But Not Enough Buyers Are Stepping In
Monday’s 1.3% bounce came as traders second-guessed the odds of a Ukraine peace deal, but the move didn’t inspire follow-through. The market wants to believe a supply squeeze could be brewing, yet the data keeps pointing the other way. Until there’s clarity on whether the latest U.S. and European sanctions will truly bite Russian exports, crude is stuck in a holding pattern.
There is a small tailwind: growing expectations the Fed cuts rates at the December 9–10 meeting. A cut would help demand at the margin. Still, buyers aren’t chasing higher levels — not with oversupply hanging over the tape.
Technical Levels Still Steering the Tape
The near-term map hasn’t changed. A failure to hold $58.44 support, the lower band of the retracement zone, opens the door back to $57.38 and potentially $55.91. If buyers can keep price above $59.23, then a test of the 50-day moving average at $60.35 is back in play. But traders know the heavier ceiling is the 200-day moving average at $61.23 — and that’s a stretch unless sentiment turns sharply.
