Source: Vortexa
This appears in all reports-implicitly or explicitly:
EIA: China added 0.8 mb/d into strategic storage in 2025, masking deeper price weakness.
OPEC: Acknowledges China as the stabilizer of seaborne flows.
IEA: Treats China’s inventory policy as a major uncertainty in STEPS.
Why it matters:
China’s SPR buying is the marginal absorber of surplus barrels. If China slows purchases, surplus could worsen, leading Brent/WTI to break lower.
The Combined Global Message for Traders & Investors
*This is not investment or trading advice. This is only my personal opinion.
The world is firmly oversupplied into 2026, driven by relentless non-OPEC growth, soft OECD demand, and Asia as the only real consumption engine — with prices increasingly dependent on China’s stockpiling behaviour and OPEC’s ability to restrain supply.
As the market looks at oversupply, price will have somewhat downward pressure, prone to upside shocks that will be unsustained above $60 BRENT/ WTI levels. In Q2/Q3 of 2026, supplies may get drained down. I expect however, seasonality to trade within normal ranges-just from a lower base.
But do not forget: nothing solves low prices in oil better than lower prices.
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