Private oil and gas investment in Colombia is expected to fall again in 2026, but companies could reverse course late in the year after presidential elections, the head of the country’s main industry group said on Friday. Leftist President Gustavo Petro – whose term ends in August next year – halted new hydrocarbon exploration contracts as part of his push to reduce Colombia’s dependence on fossil fuels and promote solar and wind energy projects, efforts that have met with mixed success. Oil output and investment both dropped year-on-year in 2024 and are expected to do the same in 2025.
Oil companies’ spending will focus mainly on obligations under existing contracts in 2026, with reduced exploration, said Colombian Petroleum Association (ACP) President Frank Pearl.
“With some exceptions, but in general we believe investment will decline next year,” he said.
Pearl had previously forecast an 8 per cent rise in investment in hydrocarbon exploration and production this year, but the projection will not be met, he said.
“There is no scenario where we can see a recovery,” Pearl told Reuters, adding exploratory activity in the South American country has dropped more than 60 per cent over the past three years.
Colombia was producing an average of 750,000 barrels per day of oil in August.
Pearl said he expects the oil industry to rebound based on proposals from most presidential hopefuls.
“Next year could be split in two – not in terms of investment flows because they won’t arrive in time, but in terms of intention and commitment,” he said. “If a new administration sends clear signals that the sector will be revitalized, some investors will start preparing to invest in suspended contracts or seek new areas and secure new deals.”
Still, any recovery will be slow given industry timelines.
“From the moment a project starts until a molecule reaches the market can easily take six years,” Pearl said, adding that Colombia has gone four years without a single new contract. “Now that will probably happen only by 2032 if everything goes well.”
