Thursday’s closing price reversal bottom at $58.12 set the stage for Friday’s strong rally. That move shifted near-term sentiment and triggered a wave of short-covering as the market built enough momentum to target the 50-week moving average at $60.82.
A sustained breakout above this indicator could spark additional buying, setting up a potential test of the 200-day moving average at $61.52. Beyond that, traders will be eyeing the swing top at $62.59, followed by a long-term pivot at $63.74.
Technically, the market’s ability to hold the retracement zone and generate upside follow-through is a positive signal that the recent downside correction may be complete—at least in the short term.
Russian Port Attack Sparks Fresh Supply Fears
Fundamentally, Friday’s rally is being driven by concerns over oil supply disruption after a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. The strike damaged a vessel, nearby infrastructure, and an oil depot, prompting pipeline monopoly Transneft to suspend crude deliveries. The port handles roughly 761,000 barrels per day, according to October data.
The frequency of these attacks has increased, raising fears that a more significant disruption could occur, according to UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Traders are assessing whether these events could eventually lead to sustained supply reductions.
