Blank sailings on major China–U.S. trade routes have finally started to calm down after a rough stretch earlier this year, according to new data from project44. After months of spikes tied to tariff changes, carriers appear to be settling into new trade patterns as demand levels out.
What’s Related
Blank sailings between China and the U.S. are down sharply from their peak in the spring. project44 reports an 82% drop from April’s high point, a sign that carriers adjusted too far earlier in the year as importers rushed to move goods before new tariffs took effect. Cancellations on U.S.–to-China routes also fell, dropping 83% from their May high.
Throughout 2024, blank sailings ranged from 10 to 32 per month in each direction. That all changed in 2025, when carriers began cancelling sailings at a much faster pace. Cancellations jumped in April, May, and June as importers pulled orders forward and carriers tried to match lower demand. Another smaller spike followed in September as new tariff actions loomed.
October was supposed to be another difficult month, but an expected wave of sailings never materialized. Project44 says carriers dialed back planned cancellations after the United States and China reached an agreement that stopped a fresh round of tariff hikes. “Going into November, planned blank sailings remain low,” the report noted.
Beyond the China lane, other trade routes also saw big swings this year. Blank sailings from the U.S. East Coast to South Asia jumped 186% year over year, while Asia-to-Canada cancellations rose 80%. Carriers also cut capacity on the U.S. West Coast-Europe route, with blank sailings up 60%. Those increases suggest lower demand for U.S. exports, especially in markets facing tariff pressure or slower consumer spending.
Even with this year’s volatility, the trend heading into the final weeks of 2025 is more stable than many expected. Carriers appear to be adjusting to the new tariff environment, and the worst months of cancellations seem to be behind them for now.
As the report notes, “Going into November, planned blank sailings remain low.”
