Traders continue to eye short-term opportunities within a broader bearish setup. Any move above $59.21 would signal stronger buying interest, potentially targeting $60.96 next. However, counter-trend rallies remain vulnerable, especially with the 50-day moving average below the 200-day—a clear signal that the dominant trend remains lower.
U.S.-India Trade Talks Could Shift Global Crude Flows
Market sentiment improved after signs of progress emerged in long-stalled U.S.-India trade negotiations. Reports suggest the two countries are close to an agreement that would lower U.S. tariffs on Indian goods in exchange for India reducing imports of Russian crude.
MUFG analyst Soojin Kim noted that a shift away from Russian barrels could tighten supply in other crude grades, potentially supporting prices. President Trump confirmed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed to cutting Russian oil purchases following their recent conversation.
China Talks Add Uncertainty but Offer Potential Upside
Traders are also tracking the upcoming U.S.-China trade meeting in Malaysia. While Trump expressed confidence in reaching an agreement with President Xi Jinping, he later cast doubt on the meeting’s timing. Even so, any movement toward easing tensions between the two major economies could improve demand expectations in the energy market.
Supply Concerns Add Fundamental Support
Supply-side concerns flared again after a planned summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was postponed. Western pressure on Asian buyers to limit Russian crude imports is also contributing to renewed market tightness.
In the U.S., the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported declines in crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. Further bullish pressure came from the Department of Energy, which announced plans to buy 1 million barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to take advantage of low price levels.
