In a report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be down by 2.5 million barrels for the week ending October 17.
“This follows a 3.5 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing modestly tighter than our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s balance, from refineries, we model an increase in crude runs (+0.3 million barrels per day) following a surprisingly weak print last week; turnaround timing represents a source of meaningful potential variability in this week’s stats,” they added.
“Among net imports, we model a moderate reduction, with exports higher (+0.6 million barrels per day) and imports up slightly (+0.1 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.
The strategists also warned in the report that the timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a slight decrease (-0.1 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” the strategists went on to note.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a slightly larger increase (+0.9 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” they added.
The strategists stated in the report that, “among products”, they “look for draws in gasoline (-4.0 million barrels) and distillate (-1.2 million barrels), with a build in jet (+0.5 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.4 million barrels per day for the week ending October 17,” the strategists added.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on October 16 and included data for the week ending October 10, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 3.5 million barrels from the week ending October 3 to the week ending October 10.
The EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 423.8 million barrels on October 10, 420.3 million barrels on October 3, and 420.6 million barrels on October 11, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 407.7 million barrels on October 10, 407.0 million barrels on October 3, and 383.9 million barrels on October 11, 2024, the report revealed.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.696 billion barrels on October 10, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were up 2.4 million barrels week on week and up 60.7 million barrels year on year, the report showed.
Frank Walbaum, a market analyst at Naga, defined the crude inventory build of 3.5 million barrels as “larger than expected” in a market analysis sent to Rigzone on October 17.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on October 16, which focused on the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, Ole R. Hvalbye, Commodities Analyst at the company, highlighted that, “in total, commercial petroleum inventories (excluding SPR) increased by 1.7 million barrels on the week”.
“The build was not as large inventory build as API [American Petroleum Institute] indicated … [Wednesday] night, but still up in total (including SPR) 2.4 million barrels vs normal decline of about 2.4 million barrels this time of year,” he added.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone on October 13 by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 5.2 million barrels for the week ending October 10.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on October 22. It will include data for the week ending October 17.
In its weekly petroleum status report, the EIA describes itself as the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. Although the White House website highlights that the U.S. government is currently shut down, a banner visible on the EIA website on Wednesday states that the EIA “is continuing normal publication schedules and data collection until further notice”.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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