We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.
Turkey and India ramp up fuel supply to the EU
– The European Union has finally shed light on the details of its upcoming import ban on refined products made from Russian crude, tightening the screws for Turkish and Indian exporters eyeing European markets.
– Effective from January 21, 2026, fuel importers in EU member states will be required to demonstrate that incoming refined products were not produced from Russian crude oil.
– Brussels highlighted this week that the EU will not accept mass-balancing, i.e. demonstrating that proportionate volumes of non-Russian crudes were used for fuel exports, aiming for strict enforcement.
– India and Turkey combined have been supplying 400,000 b/d of refined products to EU countries in 2023-2025, mostly diesel and jet fuel, leaving European importers with few alternative options to buy from.
– Diesel prices have been relatively rangebound lately, with ICE gasoil futures trading within the $630-640/mt range.
Market Movers
– UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) announced an oil and gas discovery in Namibia’s Orange Basin with its Volans-1X exploration well, hitting 26 m of net pay with light oil, with a high condensate-to-gas ratio.
– Olivier Le Peuch, the top executive of drilling giant SLB (NYSE:SLB) stated that the company does not see any significant pickup in US drilling activity due to stubbornly high production costs.
– Hungary’s oil and gas company MOL (BSE:MOL) reported a fire at its 165,000 b/d Szazhalombatta refinery, the only operational plant in the country, losing 40% of its nameplate capacity.
– Portugal’s state oil firm Galp (ELI:GALP) hopes to sell a 40% stake in its giant Mopane discovery offshore Namibia by the end of this year, reporting advanced talks with several oil majors at the same time.
Tuesday, October 21, 2025
Kazakhstan’s unforeseen production curbs, as well as healthy Asian crude buying, have helped lift crude from a psychological low point, sending ICE Brent front-month futures to $61 per barrel. The waning of global geopolitical risk premiums, amidst prospects of a Trump-Putin summit, has stopped as the US President threatened ‘massive’ tariffs on India, provided its refiners don’t halt purchases of Russian oil.
Gaza Truce or Not, Tankers Burn in The Red Sea. A liquefied petroleum gas tanker exploded off Yemen’s coast, carrying a full load of presumably Iranian-origin LPG (the tanker previously called at Iran’s Assaluyeh terminal) to Djibouti, raising navigation risks in the Bab el Mandeb strait again.
China’s Refiners Fire on All Cylinders. Seeking to benefit from the highest margins in 2025 to date, Chinese refiners lifted run rates to 15.26 million b/d in September, a 6.8% increase year-on-year and the highest processing rate since September 2023, according to the country’s Bureau of Statistics.
EU Agrees to Cut Russian Gas Imports by 2028. European energy ministers agreed to a gradual phase-out of Russian gas imports to the EU by January 2028, banning new contracts from January 2026, to be followed through with an end to existing short-term deals by June 2026.
Iraq to Start Importing US LNG. Having recently signed a deal to develop a floating LNG import terminal in Iraq, US LNG developer Excelerate Energy (NYSE:EE) clinched a new deal with the federal government in Baghdad to supply liquefied gas from the US to the soon-to-be-built terminal.
Ukraine’s Drone Strike on Russia Hurts Kazakhstan. Ukraine’s drone strike on the Orenburg gas plant has backfired against Kiev as the site was used to treat natural gas from Kazakhstan’s third-largest Karachaganak field, forcing its operators to cut output by 70,000 b/d immediately.
US Gas Exports to Mexico Hit New Record. US natural pipeline gas exports to Mexico rose to the highest ever monthly reading in Mar 2025, averaging 7.5 BCf/d, with further growth expected as America’s four 14.8 BCf/d capacity southbound export corridors wield a 50% utilization rate.
China Eyes Saudi Renewables Market. As Riyadh seeks to commission 15 GW of renewable and gas-fired power generation capacity by 2028, China’s CEEC and PowerChina secured two contracts worth $4.4 billion to build a combined 9 GW of solar and wind farms including transmission lines.
Brazil Greenlights Key Drilling Campaign. Brazil’s main oil regulator Ibama has approved Petrobras’ (NYSE:PBR) permit to drill an exploration well in the Foz do Amazonas basin, believed to be the next frontier basin in the Latin American country’s offshore, in an environmentally sensitive zone.
API Turns Against Expanded Biomandates. The American Petroleum Institute, representing the interests of oil firms, voiced its disapproval for year-round sales of E15 gasoline (containing 15% ethanol), reversing its previous support for the cause amidst shifting federal and state mandates.
Gold’s Record Rally Runs Out of Breath. Gold prices have corrected downwards to $4,180 per ounce, marking an almost 4% daily drop on Tuesday and shedding some $200/oz since the bullion posted a record high on Monday, on the back of a stronger US dollar and investors’ profit-taking.
Iran Expands Downstream Capacity. Iran’s state-controlled downstream firm NIORDC has added 15,000 b/d of refining capacity at its 265,000 b/d Shazand refinery, the country’s fourth-largest asset, as Tehran still struggles to meet its booming 800,000 b/d gasoline consumption.
Russia Floods the Markets with Crude. Russia’s seaborne crude exports are continuing to rise on the back of lower domestic refinery runs – a consequence of widespread drone damage from Ukrainian strikes – with October average moving up to 3.82 million b/d, the highest since May 2023.
Egypt to Open Up New Offshore Basin. As Egypt’s gas production continues to decline, dipping to 3.5 bcm per year in July 2025, the North African country is seeking to launch a new bidding round for four giant offshore blocks in its Red Sea basin, to be officially announced in November 2025.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
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