Britain must prepare for global heating far in excess of the level scientists have pegged as the limit of safety, the government’s climate advisers have warned, as current plans to protect against extreme weather are inadequate.
Heatwaves will occur in at least four of every five years in England by 2050, and time spent in drought will double. The number of days of peak wildfire conditions in July will nearly treble for the UK, while floods will increase in frequency throughout the year, with some peak river flows increasing by 40%.
Campaigners warned that the impacts foreseen by the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) scientists would make the UK “look very different, very quickly”, within 25 years.
Existing buildings and infrastructure should be upgraded to withstand temperatures of at least 2C higher than normal by 2050, instead of the 1.5C nations are hoping to keep as a limit, the committee said. Any new constructions intended to last decades should be prepared for 4C above preindustrial levels – a level at which the world will face global devastation.
Julia King, a crossbench peer and chair of the subcommittee of the statutory adviser that deals with adaptation to the impacts of climate breakdown, said current preparations were inadequate.
“Up to now, adaptation has been underresourced and underfunded,” she said. “A lack of action to address [the impacts of the climate crisis] will leave the UK dangerously exposed to future effects. There’s a lot of climate change already baked in.”
King said the 1.5m new homes the government was planning must be resilient to higher temperatures. The impacts of global heating were already being felt in the NHS, in schools, on transport, communication and energy networks, and this would only worsen, she added.
The CCC had not yet estimated the cost of making infrastructure more resilient to 2C and up to 4C of heating, but King said it was unlikely to be costly, and would be lower than the cost of not acting. Even if it was not possible to make buildings resilient to 4C temperature rises now, they could be constructed in such a way as to make it easy to upgrade them in future, she said.
The difference between 1.5C and 2C of global heating is much greater than many people realise, according to Martin Juckes, of the University of Oxford, who was not involved with the committee’s work. He pointed to research that showed “tipping points” could be triggered at 2C above preindustrial levels that would result in far bigger and swifter impacts, such as the collapse of ice sheets that would raise sea levels and disrupt the climate further.
Douglas Parr, Greenpeace UK’s chief scientist, said: “Alarm bells should be ringing in government that doubled chances of heatwaves, droughts and wildfires will make life in the UK look very different, very quickly: impacting how safe we are in our homes, what food we eat, how we get around – and UK households, businesses and emergency services are already struggling with worsening weather shocks.”
The CCC was responding to a request from Emma Hardy, minister for flooding in the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, to set out guidelines the government could use to prepare for flooding and similar impacts. Parr said all government departments must take note.
“This has implications right across government in health, housing, transport, and business, so No 10 must not make the error of leaving this to [Defra],” he said. “The Treasury must generate funds for the UK to adapt to the changing climate by taxing the fossil fuel companies who are making billions from ramping up the crisis – it’s the feasible and fair way to fund the protections we urgently need.”
In May, the CCC will publish a report on what a “well-adapted” UK could look like, laying out in detail the steps that need to be taken to safeguard infrastructure against future climate risks.
King also expressed concern over the turn that the UK’s political debates over the climate crisis have taken. The work of the committee had “always been with pretty much cross-party support”, she said. “It’s very disappointing to see that support fracturing, particularly with the leader of the Conservatives saying she would withdraw the Conservatives from the Climate Change Act. I hope we aren’t going to lose the consensus about the need to address climate impacts.”
A separate report, also published on Wednesday, found that the UK must radically overhaul its food systems, to prepare for the impacts of the climate crisis. Food security must be on a par with national security, with targets for shifting people away from eating so much meat, and a reduction in UK livestock numbers, according to the report, which was written with input from 150 scientists.
Other recommendations include a new “national food system transformation committee”, reporting to the prime minister, and sweeping overhaul of farm subsidies to prioritise the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and preserving nature.
Such measures would boost the economy, save billions of pounds for the NHS and improve living standards, the authors said.
Neil Ward, a professor at the University of East Anglia and co-lead of the Agri-Food for Net Zero network of 11 universities that coordinated the report, said: “Pressures from climate change, global shocks and poor diets mean significant change to our food system is inevitable over the next 50 years. If we act now, we still have time to shape our future, and positively impact national security, national health, economic growth and climate change. If we do not, change will be forced on us by crisis.”
