Oil Prices Rebound After Sharp Declines

Oil prices are rebounding modestly after last week’s sharp declines driven by U.S.-China tensions and demand destruction fears, XMArabia Analyst Nadir Belbarka said in a statement sent to Rigzone on Monday.

“President Trump’s plan for 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods from November 1, alongside geopolitical risks in Ukraine, Gaza, and Russia, has heightened volatility,” Belbarka said in the statement.

“Late-session reassurances, including a potential Xi meeting, stabilized sentiment, but the oil market remains fragile,” the analyst warned.

“Price action is driven by macro expectations rather than supply fundamentals, with markets sensitive to Washington’s signals,” Belbarka added.

In the statement, Belbarka noted that, “with a thin economic calendar, oil prices hinge on geopolitical tone and positioning flows”.

“Trump’s aggressive stance keeps crude volatile, with investors eyeing U.S. storage data and potential OPEC/IEA [International Energy Agency] updates,” Belbarka said.

Belbarka went on to state that oil’s near-term path will likely be shaped more by political signals than supply-demand fundamentals until fresh data emerges.

In a separate market analysis sent to Rigzone today, Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com also highlighted that oil prices rebounded today, “rising by more than two percent after suffering sharp losses that brought them to their lowest levels since May”. 

“The upward move in oil comes as investors digested signs of trade relief following recent remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside stronger than expected Chinese trade data,” Hasn said in the analysis.

A statement posted on the Donald J. Trump Truth Social page on October 10 stated, “it has just been learned that China has taken an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World, stating that they were going to, effective November 1st, 2025, impose large scale Export Controls on virtually every product they make, and some not even made by them”.

“This affects ALL Countries, without exception, and was obviously a plan devised by them years ago. It is absolutely unheard of in International Trade, and a moral disgrace in dealing with other Nations,” the statement added.

“Based on the fact that China has taken this unprecedented position, and speaking only for the U.S.A., and not other Nations who were similarly threatened, starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100 percent on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying,” the statement continued.

“Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software,” it went on to note.  

In a post published on the official X account of the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (MOFCOM) on October 12, a MOFCOM spokesperson said, “China has taken note of the situation”.

“On October 9, China released export control measures on rare earths and related items, which are normal actions taken by the Chinese government in accordance with laws and regulations to refine its own export control system,” the spokesperson added.

“As a responsible major country, China always firmly safeguards its national security and international common security, always takes a just and reasonable principled position and implements export control measures in a prudential and moderate manner. The U.S. remarks reflect textbook ‘double standard’,” the spokesperson added.  

“Since the China-U.S. economic and trade talks in Madrid in September, the U.S., in just 20 days, has introduced a string of new restrictive measures targeting China,” the spokesperson continued.

“The U.S. actions have severely harmed China’s interests and undermined the atmosphere of bilateral economic and trade talks, and China is resolutely opposed to them,” the spokesperson noted.

The spokesperson went on to state that willful threats of high tariffs are not the right way to get along with China.

“China’s position on the trade war is consistent: we do not want it, but we are not afraid of it,” the spokesperson said.

“China urges the U.S. to promptly correct its wrong practices, adhere to the important consensuses of the phone calls between the two heads of state, protect the hard-won outcomes of consultations, continue to use the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, and address respective concerns and properly manage differences through dialogues and on the basis of mutual respect and equal-footed consultation, so as to ensure the stable, sound and sustainable development of the China-U.S. economic and trade relationship,” the spokesperson added.

“If the U.S. insists on going the wrong way, China will surely take resolute measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests,” the spokesperson continued.

Another statement posted on the Donald J. Trump Truth Social page on October 12 said, “don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!”.

“Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!,” the statement added.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com