Big Oil to confront tough choices as mega profits fade into memory

Energy supermajors are being forced to confront some tough choices in a weaker crude price environment, with generous shareholder payouts expected to come under serious pressure over the coming months.

U.S. and European oil majors, including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell and BP, have moved to cut jobs and reduce costs of late, as they look to tighten their belts amid an industry downturn.

It reflects a stark change in mood from just a few years ago.

In 2022, the West’s five biggest oil companies raked in combined profits of nearly $200 billion when fossil fuel prices soared following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Flush with cash, the likes of Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, BP and TotalEnergies sought to use what U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres described as their “monster profits” to reward shareholders with higher dividends and share buybacks.

Indeed, the amount of cash returns as a percentage of cash flow from operations (CFFO) has climbed to as much as 50% for several energy companies in recent quarters, according to Maurizio Carulli, global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot.

In today’s environment of weaker crude prices, however, Carulli said this policy risks taking on new levels of debt beyond what could be considered a “healthy” balance sheet.

BP and, more recently, TotalEnergies have announced plans to take steps to reduce shareholder returns.

Quilter Cheviot’s Carulli described this as a “sensible change in direction,” noting that other oil majors will likely follow suit.

Thomas Watters, managing director and sector lead for oil and gas at S&P Global Ratings, echoed this sentiment.

“Oil companies are under pressure as crude prices soften, with the potential for prices to fall into the $50 range next year as OPEC continues to release surplus capacity and global inventories build,” Watters told CNBC by email.

“Faced with the challenge of sustaining these returns in a lower-price environment, many will look to reduce costs and capital spending where they can,” he added.

Clark Williams-Derry, energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a non-profit organization, said trimming the share buybacks is likely Big Oil’s easiest option.

“Over the past few years, oil companies have used buybacks to return cash to investors and prop up share prices. And it’s better to cut buybacks than dividends: For investors, buybacks are gravy, but dividends are the meat,” Williams-Derry told CNBC by email.

“A cut in a dividend would send shivers through Wall Street,” Williams-Derry said.

Saudi Arabia’s state oil producer Saudi Aramco did just that earlier in the year, slashing the world’s biggest dividend amid an uncertain outlook for oil prices.

IEEFA’s Williams-Derry linked the move to a steady weakening of the Saudi Aramco’s share price through most of this year, noting that other private oil majors will want to avoid the same fate.

Ultimately, Williams-Derry said oil majors likely have three questions to consider now that the Ukraine boom in oil prices has faded.

“Do they keep taking on new debt to fund their shareholder payouts? Do they slash buybacks, eliminating one of the major factors propping up share prices? Or do they cut back on drilling, signaling weaker production in the future?” Williams-Derry said.

“There are risks to each choice, and no matter what they choose they’re bound to make some investors unhappy,” he added.

For some, Big Oil’s current state of play is not nearly as bad as it might have been.

“It perhaps hasn’t been as gloomy as people expected earlier in the year, because you’ve had this narrative, really since the announcement of Trump’s tariffs back in April, that the oil market was meant to go into a glut and a period of oversupply later in the year,” Peter Low, co-head of energy research at Rothschild & Co Redburn, told CNBC by video call.

“What’s actually surprised people is how resilient oil prices have been because they have stayed in that $65 to $70 a barrel range, more or less,” he added.

Oil prices have since slipped below this range.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded 0.4% lower at $64.97 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with November expiry dipped 0.3% to trade at $61.24.

“The question, probably less for 3Q and perhaps more for 4Q, is really to what extent distributions and buybacks in particular might need to be to cut to reflect a weaker commodity price environment,” Low said.

“I think given that 3Q was OK, they will probably wait to see what happens in the coming weeks and months and 4Q would be a more natural point for them to revisit shareholder distributions,” he added.

TotalEnergies and Britain’s Shell are both scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on Oct. 30, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron set to follow suit on Oct. 31. BP is poised to report its quarterly results on Nov. 4.