WTI crude fell below $60 per barrel as easing Middle East tensions and weak China–U.S. sentiment erased much of oil’s geopolitical risk premium.
Friday, October 10, 2025
The relatively successful implementation of the Israel-Gaza ceasefire deal has lowered geopolitical risk premiums in oil futures and sent front-month ICE Brent prices below $64 per barrel. The evident escalation in China-US tensions isn’t adding any bullish momentum to crude either, with all signs pointing towards a 2026 impact on global trade if the current pace of sanctions and reciprocal levies doesn’t ease.
Silver Follows the Lead of Gold. Silver prices soared to an all-time high of $49.55 per ounce, surpassing its previous 1980 record as safe-haven investors are increasingly turning towards the precious metal with further support coming from central bank purchases and robust renewable energy demand.
Fight for MEG Energy Enters Final Stage. Canada’s leading oil producer Cenovus Energy (TSO:CVE) raised its bid for peer oil sands producer MEG Energy (TSO:MEG) to $6.2 billion, declaring the 8% offer hike its ‘best and final’ offer as it seeks to fend off a rival takeover bid from Strathcona Resources.
Related: Analysts Say China’s Stockbuilding, OPEC+ Stability Providing Market Floor
Brazil Adds New Oil Discovery. Brazil’s state oil company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) reported a new offshore discovery in the country’s pre-salt Campos Basin, striking oil in the Agua Marinha block in water depths exceeding 2,600 meters alongside project partners TotalEnergies, Petronas and QatarEnergy.
Mexico Grants Pemex Full Market Control. Mexico’s government has eliminated all rules intended to restrain Pemex’s activities in the country’s energy markets, including regulations to publish first-hand sales prices for transportation fuels and use standardized contracts for all domestic sales.
Trinidad Gets Exemption for Key Gas Field. The Trump administration granted Trinidad and Tobago a 6-month sanctions waiver to resume developing its Dragon gas field, most of which is in Venezuelan territorial waters, with project operator Shell aiming to produce 0.35 BCf/d by the end of 2026.
Chevron Eyes Suriname Breakthrough. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) will start drilling the Korikori-1 exploration well in Suriname’s shallow-water Block 5 by end-October, boosting the country’s portfolio of upcoming projects after TotalEnergies approved the $12 billion Gran Morgu project earlier this year.
BP Lands a Punch on Venture Global. Shares of US LNG developer Venture Global (NYSE:VG) fell by 15% after the ICC Court of Arbitration found that it had breached its obligations vis-à-vis UK oil major BP over its failure to deliver liquefied gas from the Calcasieu Pass project that started production in 2022.
US Slaps New Sanctions on Iran. The US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on more than 100 individuals and commercial entities over alleged purchases of Iranian crude and petroleum products, including the Shandong Jincheng teapot refinery and the Rizhao Shihua oil terminal.
Aramco Inserts Liquidity into Its Struggling Refiner. Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) bought out Sumitomo’s 22.5% stake in the 400,000 b/d Petrorabigh refinery for $702 million to aid the embattled refinery that last turned a full-year profit back in 2021 and has since generated a net $3.3 billion loss.
Beijing Announces New Rare Earth Curbs. China’s Ministry of Commerce expanded its list of rare earth export controls, adding five new elements (holmium, erbium, thulium, europium and ytterbium) to the previously restricted 12, as tensions rise ahead of the Trump-Xi summit later this month in South Korea.
Soaring Port Fees to Redraw World Exports. In retaliation to the US’ port fees coming into effect October 14 after a six-month grace period, Chinese authorities have slapped similar fees on US-built and operated vessels with a ¥400 per net tonne ($56/mt) levy, lower than Trump’s $80/tonne port fee.
Saudi Crude Exports Feel the Price Crunch. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports to China are expected to decline by 300,000 b/d month-over-month after Chinese buyers nominated only 40 MMbbls, even though Aramco kept the formula price of its Arab Light grade at $2.20 per barrel to Oman/Dubai.
In Palm Oil We Trust, Says Indonesia. Indonesia is preparing to mandate a nationwide switch to its B50 biodiesel blending mandate in the second half of 2026, in a bid to completely eliminate diesel imports, currently trending around 45,000 b/d, and have 50% of its middle distillate produced from palm oil.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
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