In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 4.3 million barrels for the week ending October 3.
“This follows a 1.8 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance again realizing looser than our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s balance, from refineries, we model another moderate reduction in crude runs (-0.4 million barrels per day) as turnaround season mounts,” the strategists added.
“Among net imports, we model a slight reduction, with exports (+0.6 million barrels per day) and imports (+0.4 million barrels per day) higher on a nominal basis,” they continued.
The strategists warned in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a small increase (+0.1 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” the strategists noted in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a smaller increase (+0.3 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” they continued.
The Macquarie strategists went on to state in the report that “among products” they “look for draws in gasoline (-1.2 million barrels) and distillate (-0.6 million barrels), with jet stocks (+0.2 million barrels) up slightly”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.3 million barrels per day for the week ending October 3,” the strategists stated in the report.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 1.8 million barrels from the week ending September 19 to the week ending September 26, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on October 1 and included data for the week ending September 26.
That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 416.5 million barrels on September 26, 414.8 million barrels on September 19, and 416.9 million barrels on September 27, 2024. The report highlighted that data may not add up to totals due to independent rounding.
Crude oil in the SPR stood at 406.7 million barrels on September 26, 406.0 million barrels on September 19, and 382.6 million barrels on September 27, 2024, the EIA report revealed. Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.695 billion barrels on September 26, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were up 7.2 million barrels week on week and up 45.5 million barrels year on year, the report showed.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is currently scheduled to be released on October 8. It will include data for the week ending October 3.
Government Shutdown
A statement posted on the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget website on September 30 warned that “government funding runs out at midnight tonight, with none of the twelve appropriations bills nor a temporary continuing resolution (CR) having been passed and signed into law”.
“Unless a government funding deal is reached today, the federal government will experience its first shutdown since 2019 and its first full shutdown since 2013,” it added.
The White House website highlights that the U.S. government is currently shut down.
In a statement sent to Rigzone on October 1, the EIA said it “will be able to operate for a period of time during the lapse in appropriations”.
“Until further notice, the EIA.gov website will continue to be updated, and publications will continue to be released according to established schedules,” the EIA said in the statement.
A banner visible on the EIA website on Tuesday states that the EIA “is continuing normal publication schedules and data collection until further notice”.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes itself on its website as a nonpartisan, non-profit organization committed to educating the public on issues with significant fiscal policy impact.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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