OPEC+ is close to an agreement in principle for another modest supply increase in November, overcoming differences between group leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia, according to delegates.
Key members of the alliance expect to approve the restart of 137,000 barrels a day, matching the volume scheduled for October, the delegates said ahead of a video conference on Sunday. They asked not to be identified as the discussions are private.
Russia — which had previously urged caution on supply hikes — favoured a smaller adjustment to support prices, while Saudi Arabia, more focused on regaining market share, pushed for a larger addition, one delegate said.
Oil prices traded near a four-month low on Friday, underscoring the delicate balancing act facing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies as they bring supply back into an oversupplied market. The group is restoring another tranche of previously halted output — about 1.65 million barrels a day in total — after reviving an even bigger share earlier this year.
While prices have so far absorbed the additional barrels, signs of softness are emerging. Unsold Middle Eastern cargoes are building up, and the forward futures curve is tilting toward near-term weakness. The International Energy Agency expects inventories to rise quickly this quarter and forecasts a record surplus in 2026 as global demand cools and supply from the Americas continues to expand.
On Friday, Bloomberg reported that options under discussion included an increase of 137,000 barrels a day, or possibly two to three times that amount.
Saudi Arabia — which bore the largest share of production cuts now being reversed — has led the shift toward boosting output to regain market share, Bloomberg reported previously. Sunday’s decision also comes ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s planned trip to Washington next month for talks with President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly called for lower oil prices.
Saudi and Russian officials didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
The recent series of production hikes has also highlighted limits to the group’s spare capacity. The eight key OPEC+ members restored only about 60% of the 2.2 million barrels-a-day tranche scheduled between May and September, partly due to compensation for past overproduction — but also reflecting that some producers may already be near maximum output.
