OPEC Appears Keen to Remove Voluntary Cuts Rapidly

In a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team on Wednesday, Standard Chartered Bank Energy Research Head Emily Ashford highlighted that OPEC+ “appears keen to remove the voluntary output cuts rapidly”.

“The group meets virtually on 5 October, amid suggestions that unwinding may be accelerated, increasing the +137,000 barrels per day to +500,000 barrels per day for each of the next three months,” Ashford said in the report.

“While the forward curve, market price, balances and sentiment do not suggest that a pivot in strategy is required, OPEC+ appears keen to remove the voluntary output cuts rapidly,” Ashford warned.

In the report, Ashford noted that “consensus expectation was for a further 137,000 barrels per day increase in loadings (which tallies with a 12-month division of the April 2023 additional voluntary output cuts), in the absence of any significant enough changes in the forward curve or market sentiment to adjust this schedule”.

Ashford also highlighted in the report, however, that “on 30 September, media reports that an accelerated program of unwinding might also be tabled (with the remainder being divided into three monthly increases of 500,000 barrels per day) caused bearish price reactions”.

“If this suggestion is ratified at the meeting, we would expect the market to demand further evidence of steps being taken to meet over-production compensation cuts,” Ashford added.

In the report, Ashford pointed out that Brent blend for November delivery settled at $67.97 per barrel on September 29, which the Standard Chartered Bank representative noted was a week on week rise of $1.40 per barrel “and just $0.13 per barrel below our machine learning model SCORPIO’s forecast of $68.10 per barrel set the previous week”.

“Front-month Brent traded in a $4.66 per barrel intraday range over the week, breaking above, and then back below a series of key moving averages, including the 200-day, which now sits at $70.04 per barrel,” Ashford said in the report, noting that there has been a small uptick in volatility.

“30-day annualized Brent volatility increased by 2.1 percentage points week on week to 23.44 percent on 29 September, a 19-day high,” Ashford added.

In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Wednesday, SEB Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said OPEC+ “will likely unwind 500,000 barrels per day of voluntary quotas in October” but warned that “a full unwind of 1.5 million barrels per day in one go could be in the cards”.

“October 5 will show how it plays out, but a quota unwind of at least 500,000 barrels per day for October seems likely,” Schieldrop said.

“But it could be the whole 1.513 million barrels per day in one go,” he added.

Rigzone has contacted OPEC for comment on the Standard Chartered and SEB reports. At the time of writing, OPEC has not responded to Rigzone.

Production Adjustment

A statement posted on OPEC’s website on September 7 revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “decided to implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day” at a virtual meeting that day.

“The eight OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023 … met virtually on 7 September 2025 to review global market conditions and outlook,” the statement noted.

“In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023,” the statement added.

This adjustment will be implemented in October 2025, the statement said. A table accompanying the statement posted on OPEC’s site outlined that Saudi Arabia and Russia’s adjustment amounts to 42,000 barrels per day, each. Iraq’s comes to 17,000 barrels per day, the UAE’s is 12,000 barrels per day, Kuwait’s is 11,000 barrels per day, Kazakhstan’s is 6,000 barrels per day, Algeria’s is 4,000 barrels per day, and Oman’s is 3,000 barrels per day, the table outlined.

The table highlighted that October 2025 “required production” is 10.020 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.491 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.237 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.387 million barrels per day for the UAE, 2.559 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.556 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 963,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 804,000 barrels per day for Oman.

“The 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner,” the statement posted on OPEC’s site noted.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to pause or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments, including the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023,” it added.

“The eight OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation,” it continued.

“The eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC),” the statement went on to note.

The countries also “confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024”, according to the statement on OPEC’s site, which said the eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation. The statement revealed that the eight countries will meet again on October 5.

In a separate statement posted on OPEC’s site on September 8, the OPEC Secretariat said it had received updated compensation plans from Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Oman.

A table accompanying this statement revealed that these plans amount to a total of 235,000 barrels per day in October, 248,000 barrels per day in November, and 190,000 barrels per day in December. The plans amount to a total of 4.779 million barrels per day from August 2025 to June 2026, according to the table.

In another statement posted on OPEC’s site on October 1, the OPEC Secretariat said it had received updated compensation plans from Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Oman.

A table accompanying that statement revealed that these plans amount to a total of 203,000 barrels per day in October, 266,000 barrels per day in November, and 303,000 barrels per day in December.

JMMC Meeting

A separate statement posted on OPEC’s site on October 1 noted that the 62nd Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) took place via videoconference on that day.

“The JMMC reviewed the crude oil production data for the months of July and August 2025 and noted the overall conformity for OPEC and non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC),” the statement said.

“The Committee reiterated the critical importance of achieving full conformity and compensation, and reviewed the updated compensation schedules,” it added.

“The Committee also reaffirmed that it will continue to monitor adherence to the production adjustments decided upon at the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) held on 5 December 2024, and the additional voluntary production adjustments announced by some participating OPEC and non-OPEC countries as agreed upon in the 52nd JMMC held on 1 February 2024,” it continued.

The next meeting of the JMMC is scheduled to be held on November 30, according to this statement.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com