OPEC+ will likely lift its quotas by another 137,000 barrels per day for November when they meet on October 5, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said in a report sent to Rigzone on Monday morning by the SEB team.
“OPEC+ will decide on 5 October on what to do with production quotas for November,” Schieldrop highlighted in the report.
“Market consensus seems to be that the group will lift its overall quota by 137,000 barrels per day yet again – we fully share that view,” he added.
“When it lifted the quotas for October by 137,000 barrels per day at the start to September the Brent crude oil price was trading at $65.5 per barrel. Now it is close to $70 per barrel,” he continued.
“It seems highly likely that they will lift the quota yet again. The group naturally loves a good price, but right now the group is in a process of recapturing market share,” Schieldrop went on to state.
In the report, Schieldrop outlined that the price of Brent crude was down one percent to $69.4 per barrel on Monday morning “in part due to this”.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team last week, Standard Chartered Bank Energy Research Head Emily Ashford highlighted that “OPEC has accelerated its return of barrels, with one eye on adherence to compensation cuts and the other on the perception of tightening spare capacity”.
Rigzone has contacted OPEC for comment on the SEB and Standard Chartered reports. At the time of writing, OPEC has not responded to Rigzone.
A statement posted on OPEC’s website on September 7 revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “decided to implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day” at a virtual meeting that day.
“The eight OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023 … met virtually on 7 September 2025 to review global market conditions and outlook,” the statement noted.
“In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023,” the statement added.
This adjustment will be implemented in October 2025, the statement said. A table accompanying the statement posted on OPEC’s site outlined that Saudi Arabia and Russia’s adjustment amounts to 42,000 barrels per day, each. Iraq’s comes to 17,000 barrels per day, the UAE’s is 12,000 barrels per day, Kuwait’s is 11,000 barrels per day, Kazakhstan’s is 6,000 barrels per day, Algeria’s is 4,000 barrels per day, and Oman’s is 3,000 barrels per day, the table outlined.
The table highlighted that October 2025 “required production” is 10.020 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.491 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.237 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.387 million barrels per day for the UAE, 2.559 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.556 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 963,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 804,000 barrels per day for Oman.
“The 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner,” the statement posted on OPEC’s site noted.
“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to pause or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments, including the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023,” it added.
“The eight OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation,” it continued.
“The eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC),” the statement went on to note.
The countries also “confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024”, according to the statement on OPEC’s site, which said the eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation. The statement revealed that the eight countries will meet again on October 5.
In a separate statement posted on OPEC’s site on September 8, the OPEC Secretariat said it had received updated compensation plans from Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Oman.
A table accompanying this statement revealed that these plans amount to a total of 235,000 barrels per day in October, 248,000 barrels per day in November, and 190,000 barrels per day in December. The plans amount to a total of 4.779 million barrels per day from August 2025 to June 2026, according to the table.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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