The rally, up more than 45% year-to-date, has been fuelled by a weaker dollar, expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and unprecedented demand from central banks and institutional investors. Analysts at The Gold & Silver Club (GSC) – who declared 2025 “The Year of Gold” back in January – now argue the move to $5,000 is not only plausible but increasingly probable.
Fed Cuts Fuel the Fire
The Federal Reserve is on the cusp of opening the liquidity floodgates. After September’s inflation data came in line with forecasts, traders are currently pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% chance of an additional move in December.
The OECD has gone further, projecting that the Fed has scope for at least three more cuts as the economy slows under the weight of trade tariffs. It sees policy rates sliding to the 3.25–3.5% range by spring 2026, with U.S growth cooling from 1.8% next year to 1.5% the year after.
Lower rates weaken the dollar and diminish the appeal of bonds – a backdrop in which Gold has historically delivered outsized gains.
Supercycle 2.0: $5,000 No Longer Extreme
“We are witnessing the early stages of Commodities Supercycle 2.0 – and gold is the flagship trade,” GSC analysts wrote this week. “A breakout to $5,000 should no longer be viewed as extreme, but as inevitable.”
The comparison with the 1976–1980 bull market is hard to ignore: back then, Gold quadrupled in value. With central banks hoarding bullion, supply deficits widening and institutional demand surging, history may be about to rhyme – on an even bigger scale.
