The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed its latest West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its September short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on September 9.
According to its September STEO, the EIA expects the WTI spot price to average $64.16 per barrel in 2025 and $47.77 per barrel in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in August, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would come in at $63.58 per barrel this year and $47.77 per barrel next year.
The EIA’s September STEO showed that the EIA sees the WTI spot price averaging $65.14 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, $55.41 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $45.97 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $46.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $48.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $50 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
In its previous STEO, the EIA forecast that the WTI spot price would come in at $64.20 per barrel in the third quarter of this year, $54.05 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $45.97 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $46.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $48.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $50 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Back in its July STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $65.22 per barrel overall in 2025 and $54.82 per barrel overall in 2026. That STEO saw the commodity averaging $64.69 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, $60.02 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $56.00 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $55.67 per barrel in the second quarter, $54.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $53 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.
All three STEOs highlighted that the WTI spot price averaged $76.60 per barrel in 2024. They also all showed that the WTI spot price averaged $71.85 per barrel in the first quarter of this year and $64.63 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025.
A BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on September 12 showed that BMI expects the front month WTI crude price to average $65 per barrel this year and $64 per barrel next year.
In a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team on Wednesday, Standard Chartered projected that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $58 per barrel in 2025 and $75 per barrel in 2026. In this report, Standard Chartered forecast that the commodity will come in at $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $68 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $78 per barrel in the third quarter, and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
In a research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on September 6, J.P. Morgan projected that the WTI crude price will average $63 per barrel in 2025 and $54 per barrel in 2026. In that note, J.P. Morgan forecast that the commodity will come in at $59 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, $57 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $51 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $53 per barrel across the second and third quarters of next year, and $56 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, noted in an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on September 8 that, “absent substantial supply disruptions or an OPEC reversal”, they “see clear potential for WTI to move into the $50s (or below) as builds mount across late ‘25/early ‘26”.
“That said, geopolitical risk is not absent,” the strategists added in that report.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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