On Friday, Light Crude Oil Futures settled at $61.87, down $1.61 or -2.54%.
Will OPEC+ Flood the Market Early?
The big catalyst here? OPEC+ is rumored to be eyeing more production increases at its meeting this Sunday. Reuters broke the story midweek, and traders have been digesting it ever since. If the eight-member subset of OPEC+ greenlights more barrels, they’ll be unwinding another 1.65 million bpd in cuts — more than a year ahead of schedule. That’s 1.6% of global demand.
Commerzbank’s take? If that happens, brace for more downside. With inventories already rising and demand signals softening, another supply boost could push the market into surplus fast.
U.S. Inventory Surprise Adds Fuel to the Bearish Fire
Speaking of supply, last week’s U.S. crude stockpile data caught everyone off guard. Analysts expected a draw, but the EIA reported a 2.4 million barrel build. That’s the kind of miss that shakes confidence, especially when paired with rising OPEC+ volumes.
PVM’s John Evans summed it up well: “There are increasing signs that feedstock supply isn’t going to be an issue.” Translation? The market isn’t tight anymore.
Jobs Data Undermines Demand Outlook
Then there’s the demand side — and it’s not looking too hot either. Friday’s U.S. jobs report came in light, with just 22,000 new payrolls versus expectations of 75,000. Weak labor numbers usually translate to weaker energy demand, and traders took that as a fresh excuse to hit the sell button.
