Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), India’s biggest buyer of Russian oil, is expected to remain compliant with international sanctions even as Europe tightens measures on Moscow’s crude exports, analysts said, reported PTI. They estimate that Russian oil contributes only a small fraction — about 2.1 per cent — to the conglomerate’s consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).
Reliance runs the world’s largest single-location refining complex at Jamnagar, Gujarat, with more than half its capacity dedicated to exports. The 35.2 million tonnes-a-year export-only unit supplies fuels such as diesel to the European Union and other markets.
In July, the EU approved its 18th sanctions package in response to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. The measures included lowering the oil price cap from $60 to $47.60 per barrel for cargoes seeking Western shipping and insurance services, and banning imports of refined products derived from Russian crude — even when processed in third countries — starting January 2026.
Jefferies, in a research note, underlined Reliance’s record of compliance. The company, it said, “has adhered to western sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan crude and is likely to comply in the event of sanctions on Russian crude, in our view.”
Like other Indian refiners, Reliance ramped up purchases of discounted Russian oil after the Ukraine war began in February 2022. The EU’s price cap and a Western boycott of Russian crude pushed Moscow to offer cargoes at a markdown.
Jefferies estimates that refining Russian oil yields Reliance a margin benefit of about $1 per barrel. Over the past 15 months, Russian Urals traded at discounts of $4-7 per barrel to Brent, but higher logistics and insurance costs meant the effective landed discount was closer to $3. “This translates to $1.0-1.2 per barrel of incremental margin on Reliance’s refinery throughput, in our view,” the brokerage said. On an annual basis, this would add up to roughly $500 million of EBITDA, or 2.1 per cent of consolidated pre-tax earnings.
“Benefit of Russian crude is limited to 2.1 per cent of consolidated FY27 EBITDA, in our view,” Jefferies added.
CLSA has reached similar conclusions. In a report titled Russian crude imports – the real math published on August 28, the brokerage pegged the “net annual benefit to India from Russian crude imports to be much smaller at just $2.5 billion or a small 6 bps of India’s GDP”.
That estimate is far below speculative claims of $10-25 billion in savings. CLSA explained that while the headline discount was about $15 per barrel when Brent traded at $75, the actual benefit was diluted by shipping, insurance and reinsurance restrictions. Indian refiners, including Reliance, import Russian oil on a cost, insurance and freight (CIF) basis, meaning landed discounts are much lower.
The gap has been narrowing further. The average discount of $8.5 per barrel in FY24 fell to $3-5 in FY25, and has since declined to about $1.5 per barrel. At those levels, CLSA estimates annualised gains for India have shrunk from $2.5 billion in FY25 to just $1 billion now.
Despite Reliance’s position as the country’s top buyer of Russian crude, analysts stress that the financial upside is modest and unlikely to sway its compliance with Western rules.
