Wednesday’s 1.77% decline pushed NYMEX WTI futures back to $64.43, just under the $65.10 resistance level marked by the August high. The chart shows prices briefly testing above both the 50-day ($64.40) and 200-day ($63.29) moving averages before retreating—highlighting near-term seller strength.
Traders will now be watching the $65.41–$66.18 resistance band, which represents a major hurdle for any sustained bullish momentum. A close above $66.18 opens up room toward the $68.70 zone, while downside support sits near the 200-day SMA and recent swing low at $61.12.
Geopolitical Tensions Offer Limited Upside, While Demand Remains Soft
A temporary boost from U.S. sanctions on a network smuggling Iranian oil was quickly overshadowed by weak demand signals. U.S. manufacturing shrank for a sixth month, reflecting declining industrial consumption. Meanwhile, early inventory estimates suggest a 3.4 million barrel draw last week, but broader macro concerns are capping bullish enthusiasm.
Oil Prices Forecast: Bearish Tilt Holds Unless Resistance Breaks
The market is leaning bearish heading into the OPEC+ meeting. Unless the group delays or waters down the proposed October hike, supply pressures are likely to outweigh near-term inventory draws. Price action remains technically capped below key resistance, and without a breakout above $66.18, sellers maintain the upper hand.
Traders should stay alert to headline risk from the weekend talks and watch the 200-day moving average at $63.29 as the next line of defense if bearish sentiment deepens.
