U.S. crude oil production hit a new record in June at 13.58 million barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Administration’s latest Petroleum Supply Monthly. That’s 133,000 barrels more than May and 2.5 percent higher than a year ago.
The new monthly figures also show a sharp disconnect from the EIA’s weekly estimates. For June, weekly reports pegged production at an average of 13.43 million barrels per day. The monthly tally now confirms the U.S. pumped about 150,000 barrels per day more than traders and analysts thought at the time.
That’s a flip from earlier in the year, when weekly estimates often ran hotter than the final monthly reconciliations. The difference highlights the problem with relying too heavily on weekly data: it’s a model-driven estimate, released fast but imprecise. The monthly Petroleum Supply Monthly, published with a lag, is based on operator surveys and pipeline data.
State-level numbers show where the growth came from. New Mexico added 40,000 barrels per day month on month, climbing to 2.24 million barrels per day and extending its rapid rise. The Gulf of Mexico contributed another 67,000 barrels per day, while Texas held steady at 5.72 million barrels per day. California continued to slide, down 14 percent year on year to just 259,000 barrels per day.
For producers, the lesson is that U.S. output is still climbing despite a shrinking rig count, thanks to efficiency gains and drilled-but-uncompleted wells. For traders, the lesson is different: the Thursday weekly number is useful, but it’s not gospel.
June’s revision shows U.S. output was running stronger than expected — something that matters when the market is already on edge about oversupply.
Analysts note this kind of revision isn’t unusual. The EIA’s weekly numbers are meant to be fast indicators, not exact measures, and June is a reminder that the final monthly data often tells a different story.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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