China is expected to see in August its tenth straight month of falling LNG imports from a year earlier, as pipeline gas supply and domestic production rise.
Chinese LNG imports are set to drop by 9% in August from a year earlier, to about 5.93 million tons, according to ship-tracking data by Kpler cited by Bloomberg.
If this projection materializes, China would have seen 10 consecutive months of declines in LNG imports compared to the same months of the previous year.
Three key drivers are depressing LNG imports into the world’s top importer of the super-chilled fuel – high LNG inventories, increased pipeline gas supply from Russia and central Asia, and rising domestic gas production.
Despite higher expected monthly LNG arrivals compared to July, Chinese demand remains softer compared to year-ago levels. The uptick in month-on-month LNG imports was the result of lower spot LNG prices in Asia.
But imports continue to be weaker than the prior-year month for the tenth consecutive month in August.
This year’s milder winter, weak industrial demand, and higher gas pipeline imports are set to result in the first decline in China’s LNG imports since 2022.
Last year, China imported a total of 76.65 million metric tons of LNG. This year, the volume is set to be between 6% and 11% lower compared to 2024 levels, according to estimates by research firms compiled by Reuters.
LNG import demand in China has been weaker this year amid comfortably full winter inventories. Demand in the spring has been weighed down by weaker consumption growth in the industrial and chemicals sectors.
Even if there is a rebound in demand in the latter half of 2025, China is still set for an annual decline in LNG purchases, analysts say.
China’s weakness in LNG demand would be welcome news for Europe as the EU scrambles to fill up inventories going into the winter.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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