EU Pledge of up to $750B for USA Energy ‘Viewed as Unrealistic’

The European Union’s pledge of up to $750 billion in purchases of U.S. energy products over three years is “a figure widely viewed as unrealistic”, a gas and LNG market update from Masanori Odaka, Rystad Energy Vice President, Gas & LNG Research, outlined.

Rystad’s market update highlighted that European gas prices opened higher last week following the trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union, “which established a 15 percent tariff on most EU imports – excluding the existing 50 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as several other sectors”.

“As part of the agreement, the EU pledged up to $750 billion in purchases of U.S. energy products over three years – mainly LNG, oil and nuclear technology,” the update, which was sent to Rigzone by the Rystad team recently, pointed out.

The update noted that the $750 billion target has drawn widespread skepticism.

“In 2024, the EU imported 37.82 million tons of U.S. LNG, equivalent to a 43 percent share in the EU’s LNG imports,” Rystad’s update said.

“So far in 2025, the U.S. share of EU LNG imports has risen to 55.5 percent, equivalent to 35.6 million tons,” it added.

“If this exceptionally high share is sustained and the EU imports a total ranging from 100 million tons to 120 million tons this year, it would translate to approximately $28 to $34 billion in U.S. LNG sales, assuming an average price of $11 per million British thermal units (MMBtu),” it continued.

Rystad’s update went on to state that, with global LNG supply expected to grow, prices are widely forecast to decline.

“This means the EU would need to import significantly higher volumes just to maintain current spending levels – let alone hit $250 billion annually,” the update noted.

Rystad’s update stated that other American energy commodities such as crude oil and petroleum products face similar practical limits, “with refinery capacity and product specifications constraining the potential for significant import ramp-up, while coal and nuclear fuels represent much smaller share of energy imports into the EU”.

In the update, Odaka highlighted that “market participants will closely watch … the implementation of the U.S.-EU energy deal”.

Rigzone contacted the White House and the European Commission for comment on Rystad Energy’s update. The European Commission declined to comment. At the time of writing, the White House has not responded to Rigzone.

A fact sheet published on the White House website on July 28 stated that the U.S. trade deal with the European Union “marks a generational modernization of the transatlantic alliance and will provide Americans with unprecedented levels of market access to the European Union”.

“President Trump’s agreement with the European Union achieves historic structural reforms and strategic commitments that will benefit American industry, workers, and national security for generations,” the fact sheet added.

The White House fact sheet highlighted that the deal “bolsters America’s economy and manufacturing capabilities”, adding that “the EU will purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and make new investments of $600 billion in the United States, all by 2028”.

“The EU will double down on America as the Energy Superpower,” the fact sheet went on to state.

A statement by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, which was posted on the European Commission website on July 27, said the EU deal with the U.S. “creates certainty in uncertain times”.

“It delivers stability and predictability, for citizens and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic,” von der Leyen added, noting that “this is a deal between the two largest economies in the world”.

“We will also increase our energy cooperation. Purchases of U.S. energy products will diversify our sources of supply and contribute to Europe’s energy security,” von der Leyen went on to state.

An explainer page focusing on the energy aspects of the EU-U.S. trade deal, which was posted on the European Commission’s website on July 30, noted that “the figure of $250 billion for per year over the next three years is the estimated average of overall EU energy imports from the U.S. based on a thorough and robust assessment”.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com