Since the Russian invasion in Ukraine in 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky has proved himself as a resilient political leader, gathering international support while navigating all the external threats from its enemies. However, in the recent turn of events which came into focus after introducing a law that placed two key anticorruption agencies, the National Anti-corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) under the control of the Prosecutor General has worked a catalyst for a widespread protest and discontent among the Ukrainian populations. The new law is speculated to weaken the anti-corruption bodies as it undermines the independence of the judiciary by interfering in the prosecutorial procedure.
When Zelensky took his office in 2019, he vouched for transparency, accountability, anti-corruption measures, and a new approach to diplomacy. The anti-corruption agenda along with judicial reforms was one of the central agendas in his presidential campaign. The recently introduced law is perceived to be contradictory to his own stance before becoming the president. The law is perceived to protect the inner circles of the president from any kind of investigation. Protesters in major cities like Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Dnipro, and Kharkiv have been seen chanting “Zelensky resign” and “Peace with Russia now”. The demand for his resignation and making peace with Russia demonstrate the public frustration of war weary people with no or little hope for winning.
The dramatic shift of public sentiment caused an exit from the wartime unity to fragmented opinions about the war. And it’s not only the people from civil society, young generations that are protesting against the government, the war veterans who once supported the Zelensky government against Russian invasion are arguing that the ongoing war has proved to be a chess game between European Nations and Russia where the needs of the Ukrainian government are barely fulfilled. The prolonged conflict and the lack of any substantial assistance from its Western allies made the weaker section realize that the Western nations are behaving from ambitious geopolitical interests rather than from a genuine knack for helping the Ukrainian government. And in a way the Zelensky government is helping the Western nations to fulfill their geopolitical interest. That’s why the people are accusing the president as a puppet of proxy engagement of Western powers.
Not only the domestic actors, but also the international actors have raised concerns about the new law. Although the European countries have maintained wartime solidarity with Ukraine by not commenting on any harsh criticism against the government but they pointed out the severity of the issue. The president of the European Commission Ursula Von der Leyen showed her strong concern and sought an explanation from the Ukrainian president. According to the Copenhagen Criteria that defines the membership criteria of the European Union clearly states the importance of guaranteeing democracy and maintaining rule of law as the inflexible aspects of joining the EU membership criteria. Other than that government transparency, judicial reforms and democratic frameworks are the prerequisites of receiving financial assistance from the European nations. If any one of these aspects are not fulfilled by the Ukrainian government then a detrimental effect can cut off foreign aid from its European partners.
Handling out corruption is also a key requirement for Ukraine’s application to join the EU. The European commissioner for enlargement, Marta Kos, criticised the law and stated the importance of the two bodies in the country’s EU journey. Amidst this growing criticism, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, Taras Kachka, said that he had assured Marta Kos there would be no compromise on anti-corruption.
This rising discontent amid the wartime scenario, both internally and internationally, can diminish Ukraine’s geopolitical realignment goal in joining the European Union. The rising discontent of the young Ukrainians can extinguish the morale of the Zelensky government in this difficult time. The protest not only portrays the lack of people’s trust in the government mechanism but also demonstrates the declining enthusiasm of Ukrainians in continuing the war against Russia. In this scenario, the Zelensky government has some monumental tasks to complete before paving the way to the European Union.
Firstly, the institutional chaos following the introduction of new law needs to be addressed. Popular support can not be abandoned at the cost of strategic autonomy in making independent security policies at this crucial time. Winning at the domestic front should be a priority for the government before pursuing any ambitious political goal outside. On the other hand, getting leverage over its own people can push its external pursuit of being an EU member. An independent judiciary along with respecting the concept of balance of power, may be a good start. That would likely bring back the lost trust in the government mechanism. The ongoing rule of law deficit can undermine Ukraine’s image as a stable and democratic government and that can potentially block its road to the Union.
Secondly, the Zelensky government has to win over the people’s support in pursuing the war against Russia. Any kind of legitimacy crisis of the government would only weaken its position. The staunch resistance and resilience shown by Zelensky against external threats and challenges have significantly elevated his international image of a political leader. Failing to maintain that perception would likely have an adverse affect on his leadership image and in continuing presidential tenure.
Thirdly, proving his presidential potential would not only give him advantage internally but also internationally. Proving the government’s credentials by following the EU regulations would provide an extra edge in attracting foreign aid and likely to smooth its transition of becoming an EU member. And if the government doesn’t successfully receive foreign assistance then it would lose the hope of being an EU member and the territorial sovereignty against Russia.
In the peak of an asymmetric conflict with Russia, Zelensky is now facing internal destabilization. Winning them both would not be an easy task. It seems he has to cover a long and arduous political journey in successfully making his EU dream into reality. Every step counts and he has to take every step pragmatically so that his political interest can be compatible with that of other stakeholders at home and abroad.
[Photo by Sasha Gulich (facebook.com/sasha.gulich), CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
