Most global governments have failed to act on the 2023 UN pledge to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade, according to climate analysts.
The failure to act means that on current forecasts the world will fall far short of its clean energy goals, leading to a continued reliance on fossil fuels that is incompatible with the target of limiting global heating to below 1.5C.
A report by the climate thinktank Ember found that only 22 countries, most within the EU, have increased their renewable energy ambitions since more than 130 signed up to the renewables pact at the UN’s Cop28 climate talks in Dubai almost two years ago.
This means that the global sum of national renewables targets is now just 2% higher than at Cop28. While this could be enough to double the world’s renewable energy capacity from 2022, to reach 7.4 terawatts (TW) by 2030, governments would fall well below the 11TW needed to meet the UN goal of tripling renewables, according to the analysts.
“Tripling global renewables capacity by 2030 is the single biggest action this decade to stay on track for the 1.5C climate pathway,” the report said. “Yet, despite the landmark Cop28 agreement to reach 11,000GW of renewables by 2030, national targets remain largely unchanged and fall short of what is needed.”
The report found that beyond the EU only seven countries have updated their renewable energy goals since the pact was signed, including Mexico and Indonesia, which have watered down their targets.
Countries that have failed to act include the US, China and Russia, which are some of the world’s largest energy users and together are responsible for almost half of the world’s annual carbon emissions.
The fate of the world’s renewable energy deal may depend on the actions of Beijing, which is expected to finalise its 15th five-year plan for energy later this year, covering the period 2026-30. Washington and Moscow do not have renewable energy targets for 2030, and according to Ember their political leaders are not expected to set any.
In India, clean energy targets have also remained unchanged, but the country’s ambition to build 500GW of renewables by 2030 is already aligned with the global goal to triple renewable energy capacity, the thinktank added.
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The country that has showed the greatest renewables ambition since Cop28 is Vietnam, which this year pledged to increase its capacity by 86GW by the end of the decade. Australia and Brazil have promised to increase their homegrown renewables by 18GW and 15GW.
The UK upgraded its renewable energy plans last year with a pledge to build an extra 7GW of renewable energy by 2030 to reach the Labour government’s target to create a virtually carbon-free electricity system. In Korea, renewables are expected to grow by 9GW by 2030.
