In a market comment sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, Wael Makarem, Financial Markets Strategists Lead at Exness, stated that crude oil futures “remained under some pressure” and warned that they “could remain potentially volatile”.
“The prevailing softness reflects mounting concerns regarding global demand in the context of escalating trade tensions between the United States and its trading partners, including the European Union,” Makarem said in the comment.
“These frictions have intensified fears of a slowdown in economic activity, curtailing prospects for growth in fuel consumption,” he added.
“Both the International Energy Agency and OPEC have revised down their 2025 demand forecasts. This cautious outlook on demand is set to weigh on prices,” Makarem continued.
Looking at supply in the comment, the Financial Markets Strategists Lead at Exness highlighted that “OPEC+ continued to unwind its production cuts, resulting in increased crude availability and pressure on prices”.
“The softer price environment earlier this year has prompted Asian refiners to rebuild inventories, a process that may continue if prices remain subdued, supporting prices to a certain extent,” he added.
Makarem went on to state that “a pause in OPEC’s production increases later this year could limit the downside risk”.
“Traders could continue to monitor policy changes from oil producers and the progress in negotiations between the U.S. and the EU,” Makarem continued.
In a separate market comment sent to Rigzone on Friday, Li Xing, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness, said “delays in finalizing U.S. tariff decisions could affect demand while anticipated production increases from OPEC+ as summer demand fades could weigh on prices”.
A Stratas Advisors report sent to Rigzone by the Stratas team on Monday highlighted that the price of Brent crude ended the week at $69.23 per barrel after closing the previous week at $70.36 per barrel. The price of WTI ended the week at $67.31 per barrel after closing the previous week at $68.45 per barrel, the report pointed out.
“At the beginning of last week, we put forth the view that oil prices would move upward if President Trump announced enhanced sanctions on Russian oil,” the Stratas Advisors report stated.
“While President Trump did make an announcement pertaining to sanctions, the announcement included a period of 50 days for Russia to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine before the enhanced sanctions would take effect,” it added.
“As such, the announcement had a muted impact on oil prices despite including the threat of secondary sanctions on the countries importing Russian oil,” it continued.
Rigzone has contacted the White House and OPEC for comment on Makarem and Xing’s statements. Rigzone has also contacted the European Commission Chief Spokesperson for comment on Makarem’s statement, and the White House, the Department of Information and Press of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Press Office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine for comment on Stratas’ report. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.
In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the Brent spot average price will come in at $68.02 per barrel in the third quarter of this year, $64.02 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $60.00 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $59 per barrel in the second quarter, $58 per barrel in the third quarter, and $57 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
The EIA sees the Brent spot price averaging $68.89 per barrel overall in 2025 and $58.48 per barrel overall in 2026, the STEO showed.
That STEO projected that the WTI spot price will average $64.69 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, $60.02 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $56.00 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $55.67 per barrel in the second quarter, $54.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $53.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
In that STEO, the EIA forecast that the WTI spot price will average $65.22 per barrel overall this year and $54.82 per barrel overall next year.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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