Trump’s plan to impose 30% tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico starting 1 August raises fears of a global slowdown. These tariffs may hit economic growth and lower fuel consumption. Slower trade and weaker industrial activity typically reduce oil demand, creating downward pressure on prices.
Despite these concerns, oil demand remains firm in the short term. OPEC expects strong demand through Q3, supporting prices near current levels. Additionally, Goldman Sachs raised its oil outlook for H2 2025, citing tight inventories and supply constraints. This suggests that while geopolitical and trade tensions may cause short-term swings, structural supply factors could still support prices.
WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis
WTI Oil Daily Chart – High Volatility Amid Russia Sanctions
The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price failed to break above the 200-day SMA and continued lower. The price peaked at the red dotted trendline near $77, then dropped sharply toward the long-term support at $66. This move indicates a negative trend.
The ongoing uncertainty from the Iran-U.S. and Iran-Israel conflicts has added downside pressure to the oil market. Moreover, threats of Russian sanctions further fuel volatility. However, volatility remains high due to geopolitical risks. A break above the $77 level is needed to trigger a further rally toward higher prices.
