Sales of so-called new energy trucks in China jumped by 175% over the first half of the year from a year ago, driven higher by generous subsidies and fast expansion of the charging network, Reuters has reported, citing figures from a Chinese consultancy.
Per the Sublime China Information figures, 76,100 new energy trucks were sold in the country between January and June, with electric trucks accounting for 90% of the annual sales increase. The rest came from LNG-powered trucks, which are also gaining popularity in China.
If the trend continues, it would begin eating into diesel demand in one of the world’s largest consumers of the fuel. Indeed, analysts are already expecting just this.
“The surge in electric heavy trucks was a surprise and has become a new factor accelerating China’s oil consumption to peak, most likely this year,” Rystad Energy vice president Ye Lin told Reuters. The analyst had earlier expected oil demand in China to peak in 2026.
The question of when China’s oil demand would peak has been central for oil analysts and oil executives alike. Overall, analyst expectations—and expectations by Chinese state oil majors—is that demand growth will peak before 2030, prompted by the growing adoption of alternatives such as LNG trucks and electric vehicles beyond passenger cars.
Meanwhile, total fuel use in China seems to be on its way to a plateau, with the number for 2024 calculated at 8.1 million barrels daily by the International Energy Agency. This was only slightly higher than the total daily average for 2019 and 2.5% lower than the average for 2021, when the Chinese economy started to recover from the pandemic lockdowns.
“We expect electric heavy trucks to account for 70% to 80% of new sales within as little as two to three years, driven by lower operating costs and more comprehensive charging infrastructure,” says the producer of the second-best-selling e-truck maker in China, as quoted by Reuters.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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