The three energy topics on everyone’s lips at the OPEC seminar

OPEC says more than 1,000 ministers, CEOs, policymakers, analysts and journalists were invited to its biennial seminar to discuss key trends in the oil and gas markets and the green transition.

Here were three of the main topics under discussion:

Across speeches and interviews, OPEC ministers once more advocated for a dual-pronged approach to the green transition that still allows investment in hydrocarbons to avoid supply shortages while availabilities of renewables increase. 

“Oil and gas will remain essential. Particularly in transportation, in heavy industries, and in the development of the emerging economies,” Saudi Prince and Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said during his special remarks on Wednesday. “It is encouraging to see that many countries are now taking a more pragmatic view of the transition, reassessing timeline, adjusting policies and reaffirming the role of hydrocarbon in supporting energy security and competitiveness.”

OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais echoed this view in a Thursday interview with CNBC’s Dan Murphy:

“It does not make sense that the world does not invest in all sources of energy. We’re going to need to invest in technologies to deal with the emissions and reducing the emissions,” he said.

Critics have questioned this approach — and OPEC member the UAE’s step to host the U.N. COP climate  conference in 2023 — as potential greenwashing and serving the interests of Middle Eastern nations that heavily depend oil revenues. Back in late 2021, then U.S. President Joe Biden called out OPEC+ producers Saudi Arabia and Russia – alongside the world’s leading crude importer China – for not doing enough in the fight against climate change. Riyadh and Moscow have both previously pledged to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2060, while Washington says it will hit that milestone by 2050.

The White House has somewhat shifted gears under the second administration of Donald Trump, who staunchly champions “unleashing American energy” and has called for higher domestic oil output.

OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2050 – a wider-spanning analysis than the group’s Monthly Oil Market Report – was released Thursday, estimating oil demand will pick up by 18.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day between 2024 and 2050, with India, the Middle East and Africa among key growth drivers. The combined share of oil and gas in the global energy mix is seen staying above 50% over the analysis period.

Short-term demand has also been at the forefront of considerations for OPEC and its oil producing allies, known as OPEC+. Eight OPEC+ members — comprising heavyweight producers Russia and Saudi Arabia, alongside Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates — on July 5 cited “low oil inventories” and “a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals” as the reasons for further accelerating the pace of unwinding a set of their voluntary production cuts and deciding to implement a 548,000 barrels-per-day hike in August.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday morning, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said “the market is deeper than what is perceived, in my judgement.”

He stressed that he had no concerns over a potential supply overhang as a result of the expedited production increases.

“No, I’m not worried, because we do that balance every time we make a decision. And you can see that even with the increase … we haven’t seen major build-ups in the inventories. Which means the market needed those barrels,” he said.

OPEC ministers renewed calls for additional investment in the oil and gas sector, to boost capacity levels that have dwindled amid lower oil prices and the ongoing green transition. OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2025 estimates that “reliably” supplying markets and offsetting natural declines at mature fields will require global oil investments of $18.2 trillion over 2025-2050.

In its latest World Energy Investment report, the International Energy Agency forecast that lower oil prices and demand expectations would push oil investment down by 6% in 2025, in the first year-on-year decline since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and the largest downtick since 2016. Global refinery investment this year is meanwhile expected to dip to its lowest in 10 years, according to the agency.

“I have to also say that increase in demand, there should be also the appropriate actions in terms of investments. So, the production of oil and gas and the delivery – the infrastructure – needs investment. And this investment should be done today,” Azeri Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov said on a Wednesday panel.

In that same conversation, UAE’s al-Mazrouei added, “The reality today, we are losing – if you look at the world’s spare capacity – that number is going down, year on year. Because more countries are now in the environment when they can’t produce what they did last year.”

He admitted this was also the case among OPEC+ producers.

Spare capacity has been both a boon of contention and prized leverage during quota negotiations, with some OPEC countries – such as Iraq, Kazakhstan and the UAE – previously vying for leeway to increase output in line with their higher capabilities.

Speaking from the predominantly buy side, Indian Minister of Petroleum Hardeep Singh Puri told CNBC’s Dan Murphy that “prices have to be stable and predictable, so that it is worth the while of the global consumer, as also not undermine the investment in the sector.”