Russia’s seaborne crude oil shipments barely budged in late June, holding near two-month lows despite a modest uptick from major ports. In the four weeks to June 29, crude exports averaged 3.21 million barrels per day (bpd)—up just 1% from the previous four-week period, according to Bloomberg tracking data. Weekly volumes sat around 3 million bpd, also little changed.
While key terminals like Primorsk and Kozmino saw higher flows, declines from smaller ports—including Novorossiysk and Murmansk—nearly canceled out the gains. A total of 28 tankers carried 21 million barrels during the final week of June, only marginally down from the prior week’s 21.89 million barrels, also on 28 tankers.
Despite a slight rise in four-week average volumes, the gross value of Russia’s weekly crude exports fell 8% to $1.27 billion—the lowest in a month. The culprit: sharply lower oil prices after U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites triggered a market-wide selloff. Urals crude dropped by more than $6 per barrel, to around $58.50, while ESPO crude fell to $63.80. Delivered prices to India slipped to $68.53.
Meanwhile, refinery runs inside Russia have remained strong, averaging 5.33 million bpd in the first 25 days of June—130,000 bpd above last year’s levels for the same period. That may help explain why rising OPEC+ quotas haven’t translated into higher exports. Russia was cleared to boost output by 100,000 bpd from March through June, with another 50,000 bpd bump starting in July.
The stagnant flows come amid continued financial strain. Russia’s oil and gas profits in Q1 2025 fell 45% year-on-year to $9.9 billion, according to Rosstat, and oil and gas revenues for May were down over 35% from a year earlier. Moscow has cut its full-year oil and gas revenue forecast by 24% following the oil price crash.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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