Domestic natural gas price is set to rise to the government-set ceiling of $6.75 per mmbtu next month, from $6.41 currently, as the rate is linked to crude prices, which surged this month due to the Iran conflict.
The Centre revises the Administered Price Mechanism (APM) rate every month based on the average crude price of the preceding month. The price is set at 10 per cent of the price of the Indian crude basket, subject to a ceiling of $6.75 per mmbtu. At June’s average crude price of $70 per barrel, the effective rate for July will be $6.75 per mmbtu.
Crude prices have started softening after a ceasefire between Iran and Israel earlier this week, and are currently hovering around $68 per barrel. If the average slips below $67.50 in July, the APM rate for August could fall below the ceiling.
Since the government introduced the new pricing formula in April 2023, linking domestic gas to crude oil, prices have mostly remained at the ceiling – first $6.50, and later $6.75 per mmbtu – except in June, when lower crude prices brought the rate slightly down.
Prior to April 2023, there was no ceiling price for natural gas, allowing consumers to benefit from lower prices. Under the new regime, prices have generally been higher, squeezing margins for gas distributors and industrial users, while rewarding gas producers.
