Close Menu
  • Home
  • Market News
    • Crude Oil Prices
    • Brent vs WTI
    • Futures & Trading
    • OPEC Announcements
  • Company & Corporate
    • Mergers & Acquisitions
    • Earnings Reports
    • Executive Moves
    • ESG & Sustainability
  • Geopolitical & Global
    • Middle East
    • North America
    • Europe & Russia
    • Asia & China
    • Latin America
  • Supply & Disruption
    • Pipeline Disruptions
    • Refinery Outages
    • Weather Events (hurricanes, floods)
    • Labor Strikes & Protest Movements
  • Policy & Regulation
    • U.S. Energy Policy
    • EU Carbon Targets
    • Emissions Regulations
    • International Trade & Sanctions
  • Tech
    • Energy Transition
    • Hydrogen & LNG
    • Carbon Capture
    • Battery / Storage Tech
  • ESG
    • Climate Commitments
    • Greenwashing News
    • Net-Zero Tracking
    • Institutional Divestments
  • Financial
    • Interest Rates Impact on Oil
    • Inflation + Demand
    • Oil & Stock Correlation
    • Investor Sentiment

Subscribe to Updates

Subscribe to our newsletter and never miss our latest news

Subscribe my Newsletter for New Posts & tips Let's stay updated!

What's Hot

OPEC+ set to complete big oil output cut unwinding in Sept, sources say – Oil & Gas 360

July 7, 2025

Valaris secures multi-year contract for drillships in U.S. Gulf

July 7, 2025

BP bolsters board with former Shell executive Simon Henry

July 7, 2025
Facebook X (Twitter) Instagram Threads
Oil Market Cap – Global Oil & Energy News, Data & Analysis
  • Home
  • Market News
    • Crude Oil Prices
    • Brent vs WTI
    • Futures & Trading
    • OPEC Announcements
  • Company & Corporate
    • Mergers & Acquisitions
    • Earnings Reports
    • Executive Moves
    • ESG & Sustainability
  • Geopolitical & Global
    • Middle East
    • North America
    • Europe & Russia
    • Asia & China
    • Latin America
  • Supply & Disruption
    • Pipeline Disruptions
    • Refinery Outages
    • Weather Events (hurricanes, floods)
    • Labor Strikes & Protest Movements
  • Policy & Regulation
    • U.S. Energy Policy
    • EU Carbon Targets
    • Emissions Regulations
    • International Trade & Sanctions
  • Tech
    • Energy Transition
    • Hydrogen & LNG
    • Carbon Capture
    • Battery / Storage Tech
  • ESG
    • Climate Commitments
    • Greenwashing News
    • Net-Zero Tracking
    • Institutional Divestments
  • Financial
    • Interest Rates Impact on Oil
    • Inflation + Demand
    • Oil & Stock Correlation
    • Investor Sentiment
Oil Market Cap – Global Oil & Energy News, Data & Analysis
Home » JP Morgan Asks If Oil Prices Are $10 Too Low or $20 Too High
Middle East

JP Morgan Asks If Oil Prices Are $10 Too Low or $20 Too High

omc_adminBy omc_adminJune 2, 2025No Comments5 Mins Read
Share
Facebook Twitter Pinterest Threads Bluesky Copy Link


In a research note sent to Rigzone late Thursday by Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan, analysts at the company, including Kaneva, asked if oil prices are “$10 too low or $20 too high”.

The analysts highlighted in the note that, during the company’s two weeks of marketing in Europe and Asia, J.P. Morgan “encountered both perspectives”.

“Some clients believe that current oil prices are $10 too low, while others argue they are $20 too high,” the analysts said.

The J.P. Morgan analysts outlined “the bullish argument” and “bear…reasons” in the note. 

“Incoming hard data on the economy has held up so far, and oil demand has been relatively robust,” the analysts said under a subcategory for the former.

“Perspectives are shifting away from concerns about a U.S. recession to optimism about growth-boosting deregulation and tax cuts,” they added.

“Similarly, views on China are evolving. We were surprised by the positive sentiment in China. Chinese copper demand, a reliable indicator of the health of the Chinese economy, increased by 6-7 percent in the first quarter, with sufficient underlying momentum beyond frontloading to sustain growth into the second half of the year,” they continued.

“China has a clear policy direction focused on growth, aiming at proactive expansion of domestic demand,” they went on to state.

Under this subcategory, the analysts also noted that “healthy refinery margins are encouraging high utilization rates and product cracks are strong, yet global product inventories are stubbornly low”.

“Strong demand for crude is reflected in the prompt spreads of both Brent and WTI, which are trading at 58-64c/bbl backwardation,” they added.

Under the bear case subhead included in the note, the analysts said, “despite robust demand so far this year, averaging 1.0 million barrels per day year to date, visible inventories have started to accumulate”.

“Excluding a significant 65 million barrel draw in global visible oil stocks in January, visible oil inventories have increased each month, surging by 157 million barrels through May 16 (1.5 million barrels per day),” they added.

“While China’s economy is likely to achieve near five percent growth this year, the rapid decarbonization the country has undergone over the past four to five years means that this growth is substantially less oil-intensive,” they continued.

“By our estimates, Chinese demand for oil will increase by approximately 200,000 barrels per day this year, but demand for refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel will contract by 230,000 barrels per day,” they said.

Under this subcategory, the analysts went on to state that the rapid accumulation of inventories will necessitate a supply response. They added, however, that “the cost structure of the marginal supply – U.S. shale – is at least $10 lower than current price levels”.

The analysts also stated that “OPEC’s supply increases are now visible in the oil export data, as reflected by the widening spread between Brent and Dubai crudes”.

In the note, the J.P. Morgan analysts stated that their views align squarely in the middle.

“Our pricing model estimates Brent’s fair value at $66 for June, with prices expected to remain at this level through the end of the third quarter, before experiencing a slight decline in the final quarter of the year as inventory buildup weighs on prices,” they said.

“The inventory build has already begun, and after missing January, it is now aligned with our 2025-2026 outlook, which predicted that global stocks would build by 1.3 million barrels per day this year,” they added.

Rigzone has contacted the White House, the U.S. Department of Energy, the American Petroleum Institute, the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, and OPEC for comment on J.P. Morgan’s research note. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.

J.P. Morgan’s research note showed that the company expected the Brent crude oil price to average $67 per barrel in the second quarter, $63 per barrel in the third quarter, $61 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $66 per barrel overall in 2025.

A report sent to Rigzone last week by the Standard Chartered Bank team showed that Standard Chartered Bank expected the ICE Brent nearby future crude oil price to average $52 per barrel in the third quarter of this year, $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $61 per barrel overall in 2025.

In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on May 23, BMI projected that the front month Brent crude price will average $76 per barrel this year.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

element
var scriptTag = document.createElement(‘script’);
scriptTag.src = url;
scriptTag.async = true;
scriptTag.onload = implementationCode;
scriptTag.onreadystatechange = implementationCode;
location.appendChild(scriptTag);
};
var div = document.getElementById(‘rigzonelogo’);
div.innerHTML += ” +
‘RIGZONE Empowering People in Oil and Gas‘ +
”;

var initJobSearch = function () {
//console.log(“call back”);
}

var addMetaPixel = function () {
if (-1 > -1 || -1 > -1) {
/*Meta Pixel Code*/
!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s)
{if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?
n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};
if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version=’2.0′;
n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;
t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];
s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,’script’,
‘https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js’);
fbq(‘init’, ‘1517407191885185’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘PageView’);

/*End Meta Pixel Code*/
} else if (0 > -1 && 84 > -1)
{
/*Meta Pixel Code*/
!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s)
{if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?
n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};
if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version=’2.0′;
n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;
t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];
s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,’script’,
‘https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js’);
fbq(‘init’, ‘1517407191885185’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘PageView’);
/*End Meta Pixel Code*/
}
}

// function gtmFunctionForLayout()
// {
//loadJS(“https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-K6ZDLWV6VX”, initJobSearch, document.body);
//}

// window.onload = (e => {
// setTimeout(
// function () {
// document.addEventListener(“DOMContentLoaded”, function () {
// // Select all anchor elements with class ‘ui-tabs-anchor’
// const anchors = document.querySelectorAll(‘a .ui-tabs-anchor’);

// // Loop through each anchor and remove the role attribute if it is set to “presentation”
// anchors.forEach(anchor => {
// if (anchor.getAttribute(‘role’) === ‘presentation’) {
// anchor.removeAttribute(‘role’);
// }
// });
// });
// }
// , 200);
//});



Source link

Share. Facebook Twitter Pinterest Bluesky Threads Tumblr Telegram Email
omc_admin
  • Website

Related Posts

Dallas Fed Energy Survey Shows Oil, Gas Activity Contraction

July 7, 2025

Authorities Give Rafael Gas Project More Time to Seek Production License

July 7, 2025

Mexico Keeps Up Oil, Fuel Shipments to Crisis-Stricken Cuba

July 7, 2025
Add A Comment
Leave A Reply Cancel Reply

Top Posts

LPG sales grow 5.1% in FY25, 43.6 lakh new customers enrolled, ET EnergyWorld

May 16, 20255 Views

South Sudan on edge as Sudan’s war threatens vital oil industry | Sudan war News

May 21, 20253 Views

Trump’s 100 days, AI bubble, volatility: Market Takeaways

December 16, 20072 Views
Don't Miss

Valaris secures multi-year contract for drillships in U.S. Gulf

By omc_adminJuly 7, 2025

Valaris Limited has been awarded a 940-day contract extension for drillship VALARIS DS-16, starting in…

BP bolsters board with former Shell executive Simon Henry

July 7, 2025

McDermott lands offshore Brazil contract with BRAVA Energia

July 7, 2025

Itaú Chile Issues Sustainable Finance Framework to Guide ESG-Aligned Investments

July 7, 2025
Top Trending

Texas’s Camp Mystic confirms 27 children and counsellors died in floods | Texas floods 2025

By omc_adminJuly 7, 2025

Mars Launches $250 Million Sustainability Solutions Fund

By omc_adminJuly 7, 2025

EU Launches Major Simplification of Sustainability Taxonomy to Ease Compliance Burden on Companies

By omc_adminJuly 7, 2025
Most Popular

The 5 Best Soundbars of 2025

May 6, 20251 Views

Energy Department Lifts Regulations on Miscellaneous Gas Products

May 2, 20251 Views

Jack Dorsey launches a WhatsApp messaging rival built on Bluetooth

July 7, 20250 Views
Our Picks

Valaris secures multi-year contract for drillships in U.S. Gulf

July 7, 2025

McDermott lands offshore Brazil contract with BRAVA Energia

July 7, 2025

Dallas Fed Energy Survey Shows Oil, Gas Activity Contraction

July 7, 2025

Subscribe to Updates

Subscribe to our newsletter and never miss our latest news

Subscribe my Newsletter for New Posts & tips Let's stay updated!

Facebook X (Twitter) Instagram Pinterest
  • Home
  • About Us
  • Advertise With Us
  • Contact Us
  • DMCA
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
© 2025 oilmarketcap. Designed by oilmarketcap.

Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.