Abu Dhabi’s national oil company, ADNOC, forecasts lower export volumes of its flagship Murban crude between August 2025 and May 2026, as it plans to process higher volumes of the grade domestically.
ADNOC plans to export 1.705 million barrels per day (bpd) of Murban Crude in August, down by 65,000 bpd compared to the previous schedule, Reuters reports, citing an ADNOC report.
The company pumping nearly all the crude in one of OPEC’s top producers, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), will also lower its Murban crude exports by between 100,000 bpd and 177,000 bpd from September 2025 to May 2026, according to ADNOC’s revised export plans.
The drop in the Murban volumes for export is chiefly the result of higher processing of the grade at the Ruwais refinery in the UAE amid an optimization in the plant’s feedstock, according to ADNOC.
On Monday, the expected decline in Murban supply to the international market from August sent the spot premium of Murban Crude to a six-week high.
Conversely, the spot premiums for the Dubai crude, one of the Middle East’s benchmarks, fell on Monday, after the OPEC+ group decided this weekend to proceed with the 411,000-bpd monthly hike in oil production.
OPEC cited “current healthy oil market fundamentals and steady global economic outlook” for its decision to boost oil production levels by 411,000 bpd in July.
Despite the continued unwinding of the OPEC+ cuts, oil prices rallied by 4% early on Monday, as the group didn’t opt for an even larger increase and as portfolio managers were forced into short covering. Money managers had sold crude heavily ahead of the OPEC+ meeting this weekend.
“Today’s +4% crude oil rally can partly be explained by positioning forcing short covering,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said.
In the week to May 27, hedge funds and other money managers held a 257,000-contract gross short in the three major WTI and Brent contracts, which was an 8-month high and a level that has only been briefly exceeded five times since 2020, Hansen added.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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