At 11:40 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $61.70, up $0.76 or +1.25%.
OPEC+ Output Hike Anticipated but Priced In
Brent and WTI contracts were on track for a second consecutive weekly loss, each down approximately 0.5%, as traders priced in the likelihood of another OPEC+ output hike. Market sentiment was dampened by media reports suggesting several delegates had already backed a production boost, potentially exceeding the prior 411,000 bpd increases seen at the last two meetings.
Commerzbank analysts noted that this anticipation has likely dulled any significant impact the official announcement might have. JPMorgan analysts added that a widening global surplus of 2.2 million bpd could force prices lower to trigger a supply response and rebalance the market. The OPEC+ gathering on Saturday—limited to eight key member states—may confirm these expectations or introduce an unexpected twist that could jolt prices.
U.S. Tariffs Inject Further Uncertainty Into Crude Markets
Adding to bearish pressure, oil prices dropped more than 1% on Thursday following a surprise legal development that kept sweeping U.S. tariffs in place. A federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the duties after they were blocked just a day earlier. These tariffs, dubbed “Liberation Day” measures by the Trump administration, have contributed to a more than 10% decline in oil prices since their announcement in early April.
Analysts caution that continued legal wrangling around U.S. trade policy will sustain an environment of uncertainty for crude demand forecasts. For now, the legal back-and-forth appears to be capping risk appetite among oil bulls.
Market Outlook: Bearish Bias Until OPEC+ Clarity Emerges
With technical resistance firmly in place, a growing global supply surplus, and unresolved U.S. trade tensions, the short-term outlook for oil remains bearish. Traders are likely to stay on the sidelines until OPEC+ delivers clear guidance on production policy. Unless the group surprises with a more moderate hike or signals restraint, further downside pressure is expected.
