In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team today, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, outlined that natural gas “retreat[ed]…amid repeated substantial injections”.
“Yesterday’s EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration)-reported 110 billion cubic foot injection (3.9 billion cubic feet per day looser than five-year norms and the third consecutive triple-digit injection in only the first full week of May) is deflating initial enthusiasm following the huge post-tariff April deleveraging sell-off,” Rubin stated in the report.
“In our view, the bullish impulses of the gas market may prove correct – but are just early,” he added.
The EIA’s latest weekly natural gas storage report, which was released on Thursday and included data for the week ending May 9, stated that “working gas in storage was 2,255 billion cubic feet as of Friday, May 9, 2025, according to EIA estimates”.
“This represents a net increase of 110 billion cubic feet from the previous week. Stocks were 375 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 57 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 2,198 billion cubic feet,” the EIA added.
The EIA noted in its report that, at 2,255 billion cubic feet, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Softening Enthusiasm for a Hot Summer
In the latest EBW Analytics Group report, Rubin stated that near-term cooling degree days are ticking lower, softening enthusiasm for a hot summer. Rubin added, however, that next week could see late season heating demand in the Upper Midwest support spot demand.
“Supply remains subdued and an emerging East Region storage surplus to normal may pressure Marcellus supply,” Rubin said in the report.
“This week’s 36.5¢ (minus nine percent) sell-off in the 2025 injection season strip is lowering the projected injection season storage trajectory,” Rubin added.
“While the outlook is supportive into late 2025, another month of 100+ billion cubic foot/week average injections may lie ahead first,” Rubin warned.
“Unless scorching heat returns to Texas and the Southeast beyond week one, soft fundamentals indicate little to excite bulls near term,” the EBW Analytics Group analyst went on to state in the report.
June Natural Gas Contract Falls
In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Thursday, Rubin highlighted that the June natural gas contract fell to $3.454 on Wednesday and pointed out that it was “retesting lows” on Thurday morning “after ERCOT May peak load record failed to elevate regional gas pricing”.
“Houston Ship Channel spot prices slid to $3.08 and Henry Hub physical gas traded at $3.30,” Rubin highlighted in that report.
“In the immediate term, technical support at the 20-day moving average of $3.42 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and 200-day moving average of $3.40 are potential inflection points,” Rubin stated in yesterday’s report.
Rubin said in that report that “LNG is soft with Corpus Christi and Cameron undergoing maintenance” but added that “Plaquemines is testing record highs”.
“Consensus estimates point to a monster 109-111 billion cubic foot injection this morning, although surprises have been common this spring,” Rubin warned in Thursday’s report.
“The long-term natural gas outlook appears bright, but bulls face a slog of triple-digit injections extending into early June first,” he added.
“Henry Hub spot prices averaging $3.18 per MMBtu month to date continue to exert a restraining force on NYMEX gas futures,” Rubin continued.
EBW Analytics Group provides independent expert analysis of natural gas, electricity, and crude oil markets, the company’s site states.
Rubin is an expert in econometrics, statistics, microeconomics, and energy-related public policy, the site adds, noting that he is “instrumental in designing the algorithms used in our models, and in assessing the potential discrepancies between theoretical and practical market effects of models and historical results”.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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