The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reduced its Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast for 2025 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on May 6.
In this STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot price will average $4.12 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) this year. In its previous STEO, which was released in April, the EIA forecast that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price would average $4.27 per MMBtu in 2025.
The EIA increased its Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast for 2026 in its May STEO. This outlook sees the commodity averaging $4.80 per MMBtu next year. The EIA’s April STEO projected that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price would come in at $4.60 per MMBtu.
In its latest STEO, the EIA forecast that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will average $3.46 per MMBtu in the second quarter of 2025, $4.19 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $4.68 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $5.10 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $4.35 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $4.84 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.89 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s April STEO saw the commodity coming in at $3.93 per MMBtu in the second quarter of 2025, $4.34 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $4.68 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $4.93 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, $4.18 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $4.61 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.66 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2026.
“The Henry Hub spot price fell to $3.44 per MMBtu in April, down 68 cents per MMBtu from the March average,” the EIA noted in its May STEO.
“The price decrease was primarily driven by relatively warm weather in March and early April, which led to higher than expected levels of natural gas injections into storage,” the EIA added.
“We expect natural gas prices will rise in the coming months as the United States exports more LNG and demand for natural gas from the electric power sector increases seasonally,” it continued.
“Our forecast for the 3Q25 Henry Hub price is almost double the price from a year earlier and is contributing to our expectation of less natural gas use in the electric power sector on average this year compared with last year,” the EIA went on to state.
In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on May 1, BMI projected that the Henry Hub price will average $3.2 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.6 per MMBtu in 2026, $3.8 per MMBtu in 2027, and $4 per MMBtu across 2028 and 2029.
A Bloomberg consensus included in the report forecast that the commodity will average $3.7 per MMBtu this year, $3.9 per MMBtu next year, $4.1 per MMBtu in 2027, $3.9 per MMBtu in 2028, and $4 per MMBtu in 2029.
In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on February 10, BMI projected that the Henry Hub price would average $3.4 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.8 per MMBtu across 2026 and 2027, and $4 per MMBtu across 2028 and 2029.
A Bloomberg consensus included in that report projected that the commodity would come in at $3.4 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.7 per MMBtu in 2026, $3.8 per MMBtu in 2027, and $4 per MMBtu in 2028. That Bloomberg consensus did not include a Henry Hub price projection for 2029.
In a report sent to Rigzone on May 6 by Standard Chartered Commodity Research Head Paul Horsnell, Standard Chartered forecast that the NYMEX basis Henry Hub nearby future U.S. natural gas price will average $3.35 per MMBtu in 2025, $3.30 per MMBtu in 2026, and $2.90 per MMBtu in 2027.
In that report, Standard Chartered projected that the commodity will come in at $3.50 per MMBtu across the second and third quarters of this year, $3.20 per MMBtu across the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, $3.70 per MMBtu in the second quarter of next year, and $3.50 per MMBtu in the third quarter of 2026.
A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on May 9 showed that J.P. Morgan expected the U.S. natural gas Henry Hub price to average $3.80 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.31 per MMBtu in 2026.
J.P. Morgan saw the commodity averaging $3.90 per MMBtu in the second quarter of this year, $4 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $3.75 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, $3.50 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2026, $3 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.25 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $3.50 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of next year, that research note highlighted.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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