For a deeper dive, see our full XRP forecast here.
Bitcoin Rebounds on Iran-Israel Ceasfire Headlines
While XRP continues to face legal uncertainties, bitcoin (BTC) benefited from a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. On June 23, President Trump declared an Iran-Israel ceasefire, stating:
“It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!”
WTI crude oil prices plunged 9.22% to close Monday’s session at $66.775 as a ceasefire would end the threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. Falling oil prices would ease concerns about inflation and enable central banks to resume rate cut plans, boosting demand for risk assets.
US BTC-spot ETFs Extend Inflow Streak
The ceasefire boosted demand for BTC-spot ETFs, crucial for bitcoin’s price trajectory. According to Farside Investors, key inflows for June 23 included:
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows of $105.7 million.
Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) had net inflows of $14.6 million.
Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) reported net inflows of $10.1 million.
Excluding pending flow data for BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market registered total inflows of $133 million. Notably, the US BTC-spot ETF market may potentially extend its net inflow streak to ten sessions.
BTC Price Outlook: The Iran-Israel Conflict, Trade Headlines, and ETF Flows
BTC rallied 4.42% on June 23, reversing Sunday’s 1.17% drop to close at $105,442. The near-term price outlook depends on several key factors, including developments in the Middle East, tariff-related news, and ETF flows.
Potential scenarios:
Bearish Scenario: Escalation in Middle East tensions, legislation roadblocks, US tariff threats, and ETF outflows. A combination of these may send BTC toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), bringing sub-$100,000 levels into play.
Bullish Scenario: Progress toward a US-Iran nuclear deal, bipartisan support for the Bitcoin Act, easing trade tensions, and ETF inflows. Under these scenarios, BTC could target its all-time high of $111,917.
