In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are expecting a “meaningful [U.S.] crude draw alongside product builds” this week.
“We are forecasting U.S. crude inventories down 6.4 million barrels for the week ending September 12,” the strategists noted in the report.
“This follows a 3.9 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance again realizing looser than our expectations,” they added.
“For this week’s balance, from refineries, we model another slight reduction in crude runs (-0.1 million barrels per day). Among net imports, we model a very large reduction, with exports sharply higher (+1.7 million barrels per day) and imports lower (-0.5 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.
The Macquarie strategists warned in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod. +adj.+transfers), we look for a bounce (+0.6 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” the strategists said in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a similar increase (+0.5 MM BBL) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” they added.
The strategists went on to state in the report that, “among products”, they “look for a modest gasoline draw (-0.9 million barrels) with builds in distillate (+1.8 million barrels) and jet (+1.3 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.5 million barrels per day for the week ending September 12,” the strategists noted.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on September 10 and included data for the week ending September 5, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 3.9 million barrels from the week ending August 29 to the week ending September 5.
That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 424.6 million barrels on September 5, 420.7 million barrels on August 29, and 419.1 million barrels on September 6, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 405.2 million barrels on September 5, 404.7 million barrels on August 29, and 380.0 million barrels on September 6, 2024, the report highlighted.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.686 billion barrels on September 5, the report revealed. Total petroleum stocks were up 15.9 million barrels week on week and up 27.3 million barrels year on year, the report showed.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on September 8, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 2.8 million barrels for the week ending September 5.
Ole R. Hvalbye, Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), highlighted in a report sent to Rigzone on September 11 by the SEB team that, according to the EIA’s September 10 weekly petroleum status report, “U.S. commercial crude inventories posted a counter-seasonal build last week, rising by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels”.
“This marks the largest weekly increase since early 2024 and pulls inventories to just three percent below the five-year seasonal average, easing some of the tightness seen in prior weeks,” Hvalbye added in that report.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on September 17. It will include data for the week ending September 12.
The weekly petroleum status report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products. The EIA notes on its site that it “collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment”.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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