Oil was little changed after slumping 5% last week as investors await details from US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to gauge the trajectory of supply additions to the global market.
West Texas Intermediate settled near $64 a barrel, hovering near the lowest in two months in thin summer trading. On Friday, Trump didn’t reveal additional measures against Moscow or buyers of its crude as he announced a summit with Putin in Alaska. He had earlier declared an Aug. 8 deadline for the Kremlin to reach a ceasefire.
Trump later downplayed expectations for his upcoming meeting with Putin, casting it as a “feel-out meeting” and saying he would confer with Ukrainian and European leaders after the sitdown.
US and Russian officials are working toward an agreement that would lock in Moscow’s occupation of territory seized during its military invasion, according to people familiar with the matter. The US is working to get buy-in from Ukraine and its European allies on the deal, which is far from certain, they said.
Oil has lost more than 10% this year as OPEC+ brings back production faster than initially planned, ending curbs made in 2023, even as slowing economic growth threatens to cut consumption. A peace deal with Ukraine could see an end to sanctions on supply from Russia, removing the risk of disruption to Moscow’s flows after Trump’s comments in recent weeks that he would put measures in place against its biggest buyers.
“This is not a deal which will be closed on Friday, but rather the start of a process,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “Trump is very, very unlikely to slap sanctions on Russian oil while this process is ongoing, i.e. no disruption of Russian oil in sight.”
Investors may get further insight into the supply-demand balance later this week, with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries set to release its monthly market analysis and the US Energy Information Administration its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday. The International Energy Agency is due to publish its monthly report on Wednesday.
Oil Prices
WTI for September delivery rose 8 cents to settle at $63.96 a barrel in New York.
Brent for October settlement rose 4 cents to settle at $66.63
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