At 10:07 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $62.57, up $0.20 or +0.32%.
OPEC and IEA Diverge on Oil Prices Forecast
Fresh supply forecasts are weighing on sentiment. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported Thursday that global supply growth will outpace prior projections due to planned output increases from OPEC+ producers, including Russia.
By contrast, OPEC’s own monthly report reaffirmed its higher oil demand growth outlook, citing steady global economic momentum. This divergence highlights the market’s central tension: while OPEC sees demand support, traders remain wary of an oversupplied market that could drag futures lower if consumption lags.
Middle East and Russia Risks Support Oil Prices Projections
Supply disruption risk continues to act as a counterbalance to bearish oversupply expectations. A drone strike on Russia’s Primorsk port—one of its largest export hubs—set fire to a vessel and a pumping station, underscoring the vulnerability of key infrastructure.
The incident adds to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty from conflicts in both the Middle East and Ukraine, reinforcing the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices.
India’s Import Policies Put Pressure on Russian Flows
On the physical side, India’s Adani Group—the country’s largest private port operator—has barred tankers under Western sanctions from entering its ports. Since India is the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne crude, this move could disrupt flows and complicate Moscow’s efforts to reroute exports under sanctions pressure.
