In making its forecast, Goldman seemed to be hedging its bets. On the bullish side, it raised its Brent and WTI forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 by $6 to $50 and $56 a barrel. On the bearish side, it saw downside risks of $5 and $8, respectively, in fourth-quarter 2026 prices.
Iran Disruption Risk vs. Sanctions Relief — Goldman Lays Out Both Sides
Goldman analysts took the bullish position on the risks to lower OECD inventories if there is an Iran-related disruption to supply. On the bearish side, the forecast appears to have priced in the current global glut, no supply disruption, and the possibility of sanctions relief for Iran and Russia that could accelerate landed stock builds and release higher supply over the longer term.
Third Round of U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Scheduled for Thursday in Geneva
This week, the United States and Iran are scheduled to hold a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva, Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said on Sunday. This meeting will take place just three days before the start of the 10-to-15-day deadline that President Trump said last week could launch an attack on Iran, or as he put it, “bad things could happen.”
However, ahead of any attacks, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concessions on its nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium.
