MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s economy likely remained flat in the first three months of 2025 as a result of uncertainty generated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s fluctuating tariff policies, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) likely sat at 0.0% in the first quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, according to the median forecast of 15 analysts polled by Reuters, compared to a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter decline in the last three months of 2024.
Analysts have for months warned that the Mexican economy may have shrunk again early this year, which would imply a technical recession. However, the latest data suggests better-than-expected activity, though performance likely remained soft.
“The reality is that the country is facing a complex economic scenario, where external and internal factors are coming together to play against it,” said lender CIBanco.
When compared to the same period a year earlier, however, analysts polled by Reuters expected the economy to have expanded some 0.6%, a touch above the 0.5% year-on-year growth recorded in the fourth quarter of last year.
Mexico’s GDP data is set to be published on Wednesday.
Another Reuters poll released on Monday suggested that the trade shock generated by the United States’ tariff threats could cause Latin America’s No. 2 economy to expand just 0.2% this year, down from 1.2% growth through 2024.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund significantly cut its forecast for Mexico’s economic growth.
(Reporting by Noe Torres; Additional Reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Writing by Sarah Morland; Editing by Joe Bavier)
